Win goals alone do not improve ER. Congratulations on that simple-math brilliance. That's why special plays, a step up in game volatility, and denominational increase are all used together in SPS. That's where complex combinational math comes into play, and why/how it increases not long-term ER, but TODAY'S ER. IE, SHORT TERM play ER. But arci will need to come out of the punch card era to have any chance of understanding it.