The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[tableplay]

The game could be analyzed if each bet amount was known for the 800 hands Coach. But the fact that there is 1.15% house edge on each of the 800 bets can never be escaped

So you cannot calculate the probability of finishing ahead unless you know the amount bet on each hand. Is that correct?

I understand that your calculations are for flat-betting 12 separate sessions of 800 hands each. Is the probability the same for 9600 hands total?

Through 800 hands, the expected number of hands won & lost will be the same regardless of how much is bet. Is that correct?

Considering a min bet of X = the amount bet on all losing hands, what should the average bet be on winning hands, such that the player can finish ahead after 800 hands?

You do not need to know the amount bet on each hand in order to calculate the probability of finishing ahead. You would need to know only the probability of winning a hand (assumes the probability is uniform for winning any hand). This is because your larger and smaller bets have the same chance of falling on winning and losing hands as they would for flat betting assuming Baccarat is not a countable game (to my knowledge it isn't - but someone else may know for certain).


The probability is not the same for 9600 total. For 9600 hands total the probability of winning more than half the hands is 0.011784169 (which for flat-betting would mean the probability of finishing ahead).

Yes through 800 hands the expected number of hands won and lost will be the same - the bet does not influence the outcome of winning or losing the hand.


The average bet on winning hands should be greater than $1.047 for each $1 bet on losing hands.