There's nothing wrong with getting advice from a forum, but you need a functioning BS detector. Anyone with basic arithmetic skills should be able to figure out which participants here are full of crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
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There's nothing wrong with getting advice from a forum, but you need a functioning BS detector. Anyone with basic arithmetic skills should be able to figure out which participants here are full of crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Unfortunately too many people here lack basic math. So here's a basic lesson:
When you insert a $100 bill into a 7/5 Bonus Poker machine, and after a few hands the credit meter reads $120 and you hit the cash-out button, you've just locked up a profit of $20.
Find me a math professor who disagrees?
I don't understand the reluctance of these APs to prove that they are what they say they are.Quote:
Originally Posted by bocce ball
Alan hits two $100K royals and right away he posts photos of the machines, plus his W2Gs.
Some of the stories I've read from the high-profile APs just don't ring true.
You have guys claiming to have played on the same bank of machines full time for months, yet they never met?
Groundhog supreme jbjb didn't even understand how freeplay worked less than a year ago. How can he be an AP?
There is no mathematical basis for claims of winning on bets of opinion, and free contests don't count.
I offered anybody a sure thing to take my money heads-up bets, and there are no takers.
Then NKOTB kewlj is asked to prove that he has won what he says he has won, and he wants to hire a lawyer.
That is all some AP BS right there.
If you don't care whether or not anybody believes you, then why bother claiming that you are a winner?
For the record, I don't care if anyone wins or loses. It doesn't affect me. I say prove that your "SYSTEM", "METHOD" or whatever fancy name you give it beats negative EV games long term. That means it'll work for infinity. Monetary wins or losses are NOT proof. Everything that guys like KJ, Axel, me, etc., do can be proven to work and anyone here can do the same. They're just to lazy to do them which is fine.
That is an outright lie.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Infinity does not exist.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
What else matters but monetary wins or losses?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
This ?...."It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."
If all that matters is monetary wins and losses, then we should be begging every Mega-Millions winner to unveil his or her system, because by golly they must be onto something and because it's not whether you had a good bet, it's whether you win or lose.
redietz your philosophy is starting to irritate.
jbjb... I do recall when you didn't understand the basics of "advantage play" when it came to casino comps, then all of a sudden you are passing judgment on everyone else here.
frankly, if your strong suit is weak dealers who flash cards, you have a very limited opportunity to keep your advantage over the casinos and when you play.
So far not one of the APs here has provided any information or help to others to help them win. Nor have they provided any proof of their own wins. And all are quick to ask for big money wagers if ever challenged. You know who else does that? Rob Singer.
I rest my case.
I disagree with your first sentence. I think AP's are sharing as much as can be expected. Are you expecting someone to lay it out for you? Do this and that and that and it's a guaranteed winner. That is not the way it works.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Your second sentence is exactly why there aren't more AP's participating here. Prove this...prove that...PROVE THIS. WTF, Alan? Explain how it is in any AP's interest to prove anything?
None of the AP's here are here selling anything, that I can see. If that were the case, I can see asking them to prove their claims. In the absence of that, it goes back to what I have said so many times, including on this site. You and everyone else is free to believe what you want. Don't believe. Believe the earth is flat. Makes no difference to me. Frankly, for people that don't want to believe, you among that group, there is no proof that would satisfy them anyway.
Pretty much, yup.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
That would indeed be a red flag, but my impression of the stories is that the details generally fit together quite nicely.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
I think claiming to be a winner is usually incidental. The value of an advantage play (AP) can be evaluated mathematically, so the discussions (unless hijacked) tend to involve math. The value of a betting system (BS) "transcends" conventional math, so those discussions tend to involve actual results.Quote:
If you don't care whether or not anybody believes you, then why bother claiming that you are a winner?
I can't really control who I irritate, so I try to not care.
And anybody who can tell me what my philosophy is, please PM me. I didn't know I had one.
Frankly, I don't understand why the APs bother to post here? They already know everything. They are already winners. And they are not interested in finding out about the expert advice Dan gives about Total Rewards.
I think the APs would be better off just winning money and impressing the other APs on WOV.
That is a pretty shitty attitude. Very welcoming. :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
One of the reasons I gave up this forum is because there has been nothing rewarding that has come from it. We have fighting and more fighting, and no one is sharing information or help for others with the exception of Dan and a few others who have made some helpful contributions. The rest? Come on -- would you carry on this way if I invited all of you over for cocktails and dinner? Of course you wouldn't.
So what's the point of even having this forum.
We have the APs who tell everyone who isn't an AP that you are doing it all wrong but dare not ask them for advice about what to do right.
We have the non-APs who enjoy doing what they are doing but get criticized for it even if they happen to win.
We have Rob Singer which is a situation all by itself.
I remember dozens of members who no longer post here and they left saying the same things: there is a lack of useful information and a glut of negativity.
When I started this forum years ago the goal was to provide a place for sharing and helping, not for criticizing. But I made a mistake. I allowed "free speech" because I didn't want this forum to be run like the Wizard's. But the free speech got out of control and I couldn't stop the tailspin. That's why I turned it over to Dan.
Have we all noticed that its the same ten people who do all the posting?
Have you also noticed we lost most of the ladies who used to contribute and ask questions here?
All I can say is you guys won. I hope you and Dan are happy.
You have been given more information by AP's here than the law allows. You choose to ignore it and say they aren't making any contributions here. Just recently, explaining the dice math to you was helpful contribution. You belittled it. Explaining loss rebate strategy was very helpful contribution. What did you do with it? You belittled it. Called it all wrong. The problem here is not a lack of AP's explaining all these concepts to you. The problem is your faulty math logic does not allow you to believe any of it and so you ridicule it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
So why should any AP continue to explain all these concepts to you when you are just going to ridicule it?
The dice math? Where you guys rotate a die to show different faces in order to answer the two dice in a cup problem your way?
Sorry. It was wrong. You can't change how a die lands.
You did the same thing in your video.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, you can't have it both ways. Here you're asking why do APs bother posting here (rhetorically presumably)....yet also want people to make valuable contributions to this forum, as far as I can tell. The information and things we're saying IS RIGHT....the problem is you and others can't accept it.
We're not here to prove a damn thing. It's you & co who can't accept (or understand?) math and ask us to prove what we say is true.
As far as negativity, much of it comes from Rob Stringer. Had you left Rob banned, he likely wouldn't still be posting here, and this forum would be a better place without him.
Unfortunately, I don't think anything here is ever going to change. It's a shame there because are some actual bright people here who don't post on other forums AFAIK (Mickey & KJ [sort of], redeitz, and some others I can't think of off hand).....and much of this forum is ruined because of the constant BS Rob/Alan/coach/blackasshole spew.
An absolute lie. I did not.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou did the same thing in your video.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
What I did show is that it didn't matter which of the two dice was showing a 2. But I did not alter the face of a die to answer the question.
Here's my video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCT-5Rye9bk
For example, the two dice problem? You give us the math but we ask you to prove it using two dice and you refuse to do it. When the wizard tries to prove it with two dice he has to show more than one face on a die which in reality (and certainly at any craps table in Vegas) you cannot do.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
So you see, you guys can spout off your math all you want to, but it has to be the correct math.
Now getting back to our biggest problem at hand: Can Coach show a profit on a 98% game. The "math" says he won't. I agree, the math says he won't. But maybe if he plays DIFFERENTLY he will beat the expected value.
I don't know if there is a math formula for playing differently besides what Rob has in his special plays. But if you really want to live by the math, go ahead and bet against him.
Me? I won't. Because I wouldn't bet against a 2% margin.
It is the correct math. I believe Wizard made a video where he showed all combinations where at least why die is a 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonFor example, the two dice problem? You give us the math but we ask you to prove it using two dice and you refuse to do it. When the wizard tries to prove it with two dice he has to show more than one face on a die which in reality (and certainly at any craps table in Vegas) you cannot do.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
So you see, you guys can spout off your math all you want to, but it has to be the correct math.
I could make a video where I roll two dice many times and record each time at least one of them is a 2, then write if the other die is or is not a 2. But that would be like me flipping a coin a bunch of times and showing on average you'll see 1/2 heads and 1/2 tails. Or I can make a video of two apples in a basket, me adding 3 more apples to the basket, just to show 2+3=5.
The math doesn't say he won't (or can't) win on a 98% game for some session, it says he is not expected to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan
I tried to meet up with two of the biggest bullshit AP artists on these sites, in AC and LV. Not to learn anything about their secrets. I don't need to chase dollars down hanging out in casinos with the rest of whats left of my life. Just wanted to meet up with them, take them out to dinner, and talk in person. Wisdom from being around the block a few times combined with just live conversation, could teach a person a lot about the character of someone. The same goes for the other person talking to me.
But, of course neither meeting took place cause the BSAP's wouldn't meet up. Maybe they thought I was going to plant some micro tracking devise on them.
I would appreciate if someone could link me to a single proven, confirmed AP bullshit story. Kewlj, stay out of this, I'm not hiring a lawyer. Besides, I personally feel your alleged success isn't even worth looking into.
Yes RS you could create a video just like the Wizard dId that shows the wrong math.
But if you used only two dice and one came to rest on a 2 you would see for yourself that the answer is 1/6. But you and the Wizard won't use two dice.
You're all so smart you can't see your own error.
I don't know why some boards are more popular than others. IMO the biggest annoyance here is the repetition, but I don't know how to fix it. In general, I don't think members should be banned simply for being loudmouths. I'm glad Rob is allowed to express himself here, and I know the ignore feature is available if I need it. (So far, I haven't ignored anyone.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Some topics are doomed from the start. The proper analytical tools for this situation are mathematics and/or simulations. Actually playing the game is at best a complete waste of time, so the math-oriented posters tend to give lazy or sarcastic responses, although the correct answers are probably mixed in to the discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
You know, it's a shame you've been such a horse's ass with me. I'm always up for a free dinner. I'm not sure sports betting falls under your parameters, but if it did, the thing about sports betting -- wins and losses are often recorded for the public to see and follow. Winning contests actually means something. Amounts wagered can be seen in the offshore account records. I can drag along some of my partners or clients to meetings to verify or provide backstory. Some of these guys have known me for 30 years. Hell, Alan has a chunk of my backstory.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
But frankly, what would be in it for me? "Proving myself" to some anonymous twit? My profile was good enough to be hired by Billy Walters. I'm one of 50 people who got the email invite to the 2017 Wise Guys Contest.
So some wealthy losing dude wants to sit down and meet some white crows. There's a gazillion wealthy losing dudes out there. Why should the white crows bother?
I owned several thoroughbreds that ran in NY, Florida, and Saratoga. My wins and losses while betting were never recorded for public display, simply because we knew how to do it. Couldn't avoid winning purses.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Take a walk you 2-bit ass-hole.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackholeI owned several thoroughbreds that ran in NY, Florida, and Saratoga. My wins and losses while betting were never recorded for public display, simply because we knew how to do it. Couldn't avoid winning purses.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Take a walk you 2-bit ass-hole.
I'm sure you enjoyed posting that you owned thoroughbreds, even though that was a complete non sequitur. One of my partners has a (small) racing stable. I owned a chunk of a horse from the UK a few years back. Didn't work out too well.
There's a difference between picking race winners and making public how much you won doing it. Those are two completely different things. You seem to have missed the distinction.
There's a difference between picking race winners and making public how much you won doing it. Those are two completely different things. You seem to have missed the distinction.
Your a fn weirdo. By the way, hired by Billy Waters? To do what...be a runner for him? Besides, the guy's a known crook who would turn his back on you and let you rot in jail, as long as he remains free.
Most of these big time exposed AP's always seem to be doing something illegal. Nice bunch of fellows. Look at all the poker big boys and the internet screw job they gave everyone. How about the asshole Phil Ivey and the baccarat scam, plus pissing all his money away on crap games. Yea, that's a special kind of guy.
Alan, in this video, if you didn't pick up a die and turn it around I'll kiss your ass on Main St. at high noon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAn absolute lie. I did not.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou did the same thing in your video.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
What I did show is that it didn't matter which of the two dice was showing a 2. But I did not alter the face of a die to answer the question.
Here's my video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCT-5Rye9bk
Listen Mickey. I picked up the die which landed showing the six to show the die had six sides. I did not pick up the die to try to show there were eleven possible combinations which is what the Wizard does.
Now don't start with me. Because everyone can watch that video and decide for themselves without taking your word for what happened. This time it's on video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ej-sZk3_Idk
Here's the Wizard's video where he double counts and rotates the die. Let him try that at a table in Vegas or in a street game here in LA.
Take a walk you insolent bag of shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
You were going to gamble with him in it but then chickened out. You used a bunch of phony excuses.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Just like you, Mickey, were going to bet with Coach and chickened out?
For the record, not a runner. Never a runner. But I did think The Runner was one of the best terrible movies I have ever seen. John Goodman plays a Billy Walters-esque character.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
So why again do you want to actually meet some APs, blackhole? So you can evaluate their character?
I don't believe this. Can you show proof. Proof of ownership and registration papers, complete with your real name, address. And then show proof that this person is the person that posts as 'blackhole'. The we need proof that these horses all ran in NY, Florida and Saratoga.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Otherwise you are a liar and bullshit artist. Isn't that the way anonymous message board sites work?
First I want you to choose a lawyer, a third party, or arbitrator that I approve of first. Then I want a legitimate meeting place on the east coast that I also approve of. I want 20K confirmed in writing in escrow, with legal documents also confirming the winner of the bet takes all.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI don't believe this. Can you show proof. Proof of ownership and registration papers, complete with your real name, address. And then show proof that this person is the person that posts as 'blackhole'. The we need proof that these horses all ran in NY, Florida and Saratoga.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Otherwise you are a liar and bullshit artist. Isn't that the way anonymous message board sites work?
I'm still waiting for you chickenshits to get here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I realize you are making fun, but IF I was legitimately challenging you to prove your claims (which I am not, because that is not the way anonymous message boards work), I would provide some incentive for you to do so (like a wager). I would not expect you to prove anything just to satisfy some anonymous person that you don't know on a message board, without providing some benefit for you to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
And if there was some wager involving a decent chuck of money, there would have to be legal procedures laid out. Is one party supposed to just trust the other party to pay after the fact. In my short time here, I have personally seen how that works. :rolleyes: And quite frankly thinking back on almost every site I have participated on, there is some sort of long running dispute resulting from a claim of one party welching on a bet.
So yeah, you can make fun, but if you want me to prove anything to you, it has to be worth my while to do so. Has to be worth my while to reveal my name, tax documents, deed to home, even to a third party. And for the kind of money that would make it worthwhile for me to do so, I would want protections...guarantees that I will get my money.....hence escrow procedures.
But really none of that is how an anonymous message board works. On an anonymous message board, you can believe or you can not believe an individual and claims. But to think that anyone is going to prove anything just to satisfy some goof-ball's curiosity on an anonymous message board, you are living in an alternative reality. NO ONE would do that.
Plenty have done it...we've seen W2Gs for machine play.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Most notably arcimede$ did it...he provided his tax returns for several years.
It seemed pretty easy to do...I don't recall him or anyone else jumping through hoops, and I don't believe any wagers were involved.
And most recently of course, Rob Dietz sent an entire packet of info to Alan to back up his claims.
Maybe nobody has done it on WOV, probably because if you're not polite enough over there, they kick you to the curb.
Blackjack players don't get W2Gs, do they? And unless they operate on the honor system 100% it is unlikely they will even report their table game wins.
So, it would be hard to prove the claims of a table games player.
By the way the only times I ever got a W2G at craps was after hitting all 6 on the Fire Bet for $5.
Cash game poker players don't get W2-G's either. The way the IRS gets them is lifestyle. They want to know how you are making $3000 a month in mortgage and car payments when you only make $30,000 a year. But the ones they have caught usually get a cut rate deal and make monthly payments to payoff their tax bill.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
It took a couple of years of Rob goading arci before he did it. And you remember what Rob said, if arci sends his returns to Alan then he (Rob) would do the same and send his returns to prove his claims of winning $100,000 a year at video poker. When arci finally got enough of it and announced that he was sending his returns to Alan, Rob started going "Hold on! Hold on! No wait! No, that wasn't the deal!! Back up! Back up! The returns won't prove anything! Yeah, that's it!!!! The returns won't prove anything!!" Rob never intended to send his returns to Alan. The whole time Rob was brow beating arci he figured arci was a weakling and would never send them in. Rob was bluffing the whole time. But it backfired on him. Arci did exactly what Rob figured he would never do, sent his returns to Alan. To this day Rob still hasn't sent his returns to Alan. This after repeatedly saying that he would. It's about as dishonorable as it gets.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyPlenty have done it...we've seen W2Gs for machine play. Most notably arcimede$ did it...he provided his tax returns for several years.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
It seemed pretty easy to do...I don't recall him or anyone else jumping through hoops, and I don't believe any wagers were involved.
Rob won't send his returns because he has something to hide. Like the fact that he didn't make near the money he said he did.
Blackhole should be after Rob to prove his claims because Rob can't even go a week without bragging about his highly successful video poker career in which he made a million dollars in ten years. Rob has been making this claim for years and has never proven any of it.
Actually Rob made NO money at video poker. He said that himself with his writeoffs. If he really had a business and really wrote off everything in the win column then his business was a bust.
First of all, I’m not after anyone. As far as I’m concerned Rob’s claims have been debunked a long time ago. Personally, I view him on this site as the class clown. His comments are hilarious and it’s obvious he knows better than most how impossible making a million dollars playing video poker or anything else truly is. This I assume is why he’s all over the alleged AP’s knowing firsthand how much shit their all full off.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
No one is ever going to prove anything on these sites. I’m convinced the AP’s post their endless alleged shit for mental reasons.
The big time exposed AP’s for all to see and read (excluding poker) obviously are true, and usually are one hit wonders. But trying to convince me your making a full time secure living and future for you and your family, (if you’re not a loner, homeless, or whatever else) during the normal expected working years which could be well over 50, makes the chasing slot machines, finding flashing dealers, traveling all over the place for bonuses, cash backs, or whatever, makes that claim a very hard pill to swallow.
Why would any successful AP be on any gambling forum touting their achievements? Because it’s the only place they could try and convince other gamblers they’re not life time gambling losers like 99.9 percent truly are. They want you to believe there that gifted .1 %
I'm not trying to make you believe anything. Believe what you want to. I don't care. It has no bearing on what I do for a living. But I pretty much agree with your figure of maybe only .1% succeeding in AP. I just seen a government stat today where 93% of small businesses fail within the first 7 years. That's a lot of failure. If you tell me you are a restaurant owner should I just go ahead and figure you for a failure....or one who is about to fail?Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
The failure rate is high in the AP business just like it is in regular business but there are some of us who get through the window of opportunity.
If blackhole is to be believed, I don't know why he has an issue with me. I didn't mention anything about anything for more than 2000 posts and years, until Rob went on some condescending rant about being the only expert and professional and all that.
Blackhole's probably wrong on his million-dollar conjecture. I have no love of Bob Dancer, but it was (emphasis "was") possible in the 80's and early 90's to make a million dollars playing video poker. A million dollars isn't all that much money. The edges were there. Cashback and comps were originally the same for video poker as for slots. I think Dancer's book has some holes in the story, but people who started with much bigger bankrolls that his could have done some damage.
You could still make a million dollars a year playing VP if you play $100/coin machines.
This is why I believed Rob that he made $100K a year because he was playing $25/coin video poker.
The numbers are all relative.
If you are playing $1 video poker you're going to have a hard time making anything substantial. If you are playing 25-cent FPDW you're better off working for In 'N Out Burgers.
Boy you got that right, Redietz! No words were more true. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I suppose if someone hands you a million dollars, it is still a lot of money and you can do a lot with it. But earning (winning) a million dollars over a number of years, like 14 (me) and it doesn't amount to all that much. I own a modest home, and have a 6 figure BR (that hopefully will allow me to continue earning). That's about it. The rest went to living for those 14 years and I live pretty modestly, and of course Uncle Sammy's cut.
When I started out in 2004, I planned to make a million dollars. I had no idea whether I actually could or not. But I figured a million and I would be set for life. Ha! Having reached that milestone, I am probably set for the next couple years, but since I am hoping to live a little longer than 2 years....hardly for life. :( Revised plan...... :cool:
Yes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Let’s not just focus on a million dollars. Many of us here cashed out and went home throughout our lives totaling over a million dollars, yet, are still big losers. Of course, there are mega jackpot winners, winning several million dollars at once, and will never lose it all back.
My doubts are talking about grinding out an AP life that is good enough to support you and your family comfortably, to include housing, health insurance for all, college, enough security for retirement years, and all the other mandatory money commitments life naturally brings with it. Just a normal average life time calls for over several million dollars easily.
Considering trying to pull that type of mandatory money out of casinos today, not in the 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s while the casinos were catching up to AP’ing is a tough nut to crack today. Maybe there was 30 years being an AP was easier, but certainly not any longer. Even then it would have been difficult to secure a safe future for a family to last till death.
I’m certain a few people may have gotten lucky and pulled it off, but the amount of people trying to blow smoke up everyone's asses across these different forums is ludicrous.
And the people flapping their lips on radio and books about how they did it, or are still doing it, obviously need the additional income to stay afloat.
This is several times you have mentioned that you have done well in life. That's great! I am sincerely happy for you and anyone that has done well. AND....I don't require proof. I take you at your word. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
I don't quite get the "yet are still big losers" part? :confused: Are you saying that you are losers when you play casinos games? Because there is nothing wrong with that. You enter a casino and play whatever game you play with a completely different objective than someone like me....enjoyment and entertainment. Again nothing wrong with that.
It like professional golfers and people who play for fun on the weekend. Both playing a round of golf. One has an objective of making a living. The other makes a living doing something else and when he pulls the clubs from his trunk on a Saturday morning, his objective is enjoyment. I don't understand why you are mixing the two up? Do the players playing a round of gold on a Saturday morning for entertainment and enjoyment, think it impossible for someone to play for a living?
It's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year.
And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.
If you want to talk about benefits, most benefit packages are worth between 25% and 35% of salary. So an AP making $100,000 a year would need at least $25,000 more to buy a benefits package fitting a $100,000 salary.
First, the 2nd 100K jackpot he supposedly hit was after he "retired" his system. Now, the quads are beside the point. In the 10 year period he used the system he only hit one royal at $25 denom. If you hit only one royal at that denom in ten years then you simply didn't play much at that level. 3rd, strategy shifts can greatly improve your chances on making straights, flushes, straight flushes and royals but there is not a lot you can do to improve your chances on full houses and quads. The chances remain about the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonIt's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces. If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year. And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I have no problem admitting I don't have a retirement account other than my bankroll. The only check I will be drawing is SS. The thing about the benefits packages is people who work for a living talk about it like its free. It's not free. Someone is paying for it. Your employer calculates into his expense of employing you and you have to work for it in order to get it. Who pays for the benefits of a drywall contractor or restaurant owner or tire dealer? Employers have to buy their own benefits. Nothing is free.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickey... I have played maybe 300 hands of $25 video poker in my life. And I hit two $100K royals. One in Oct of 2016 and one in Oct of 2015. I was damn lucky.
I have known people who played video poker for a lifetime and NEVER hit a royal.
Then there is my girlfriend who plays 25-cent video poker about four nights a week at a bar/restaurant where she goes for karaoke and to meet friends for lunch or dinner, and she was DEALT two royals on two successive nights. (I posted the photos before.)
The point is this: how many royals you hit in your lifetime isn't a measure of anything.
As a matter of fact, I am now paying for additional pension benefits because for the last 11 years I've been in the Infomercial business. Previously I was an employee of TV and radio stations and they paid for my benefits. Now, I can see directly how the benefits package comes out of what would have been additional pay for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI have no problem admitting I don't have a retirement account other than my bankroll. The only check I will be drawing is SS. The thing about the benefits packages is people who work for a living talk about it like its free. It's not free. Someone is paying for it. Your employer calculates into his expense of employing you and you have to work for it in order to get it. Who pays for the benefits of a drywall contractor or restaurant owner or tire dealer? Employers have to buy their own benefits. Nothing is free.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
But to be 100% honest -- I want to pay for the benefits package because I couldn't afford it on my own without being part of the union's plan.
The new "18 yo's in a row".Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
First of all, no one is bragging about doing well in life. Funny how you want to convert cashing out a million dollars throughout a life time of visiting casinos into somehow meaning your status is special. The past conversations were specifically about a million dollars is the only reason that came up. Any educated person realizes that the value of a million dollars to one person could have the same value of what a 100k might mean to someone else. It’s the capitalist way of life.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Cashing out and going home with 5 or 10K a few times a year is easy to do, along with giving it all back plus some. Doing that over a 40-year period is far, far, away from bragging. You just need to make argument and absurd analogy’s regardless what I say simply in an attempt to justify and avoid the mandatory financial facts of the cost of living today.
You must be a special type of BJ player, especially when most AP BJ players feel the belt has been tighten so much it’s no longer worth the effort. With odd changes, amount of decks, the cuts, shuffling machines, pit and endless new surveillance knowledge (to include face recognition technology) totaling focusing on cheaters and AP players, your still capable of pulling down for over ten years already, working the same different casinos in Vegas, a decent salary. Now, that’s a good for you story, and one to be proud of. I won’t be here to see how this career ends, but you have at least another 30 or 40 years to go at your confirmed rate of income. By the way, I wish you nothing but good luck.
At least your claims of success playing BJ for profit is nothing new. It’s been proven several times in the past with teams and what not. Doing it today certainly is much tougher since the casinos are squeezing your nuts much tighter. It’s the slot games, video poker, promotions, cash backs, flashing dealers, comps., traveling all over the country cashing in on dumb casino operators that raises much doubt. Being able to support a family for a lifetime doing that is extremely hard to believe.
I mentioned this back in November, but inexpensive glasses have been designed that defeat facial recognition software. They look a bit new agey, but do not look like something out of Star Trek. Not only that, certain designs can trick the software into thinking it's looking at a famous person. I believe Milla Jovovich had about a 75% id rate, depending on who was wearing them.
KJ is too smart to argue with someone about the efficacy of facial recognition software.
I tried to post a link, but it just sends you to the archive. It was in New Scientist 1 November 2016.
Note: I got the number wrong, Milla had a 90% fool rate.
Note #2: It occurred to me, after spending a couple of minutes thinking about it, that the prevalence of clubs with techno dance music has provided the perfect cover for defeating facial recognition systems to this point. If you're young-ish (I may be guilty of ageism here), funky glasses, reflective devices, and particular kinds of makeup were the previous mainstays for beating facial recognition systems. If every casino had a big club, seems like you'd blend okay.
Where did anyone say that APing and earning XXX amount of money is equivalent to working for XYZ corp and earning the same XXX salary + the retirement benefits that would go with that? Just like anyone in business for themselves an AP's salary has to be adjusted for lack of health/retirement benefits. I just don't see where anyone claimed otherwise. But it seems like you are just looking for ways to 'knock' AP's, Alan. Just seems like you have a real bug up your ass about AP's. Next I would expect to hear the "contributes nothing to society" argument. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There are two separate issues in this paragraph. One is deteriorating BJ conditions and the second is pit/surveillance advances in technology and knowledge. I will address deteriorating conditions here and save pit/surveillance for the following quote.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
I often hear the argument about how BJ conditions have and continue to deteriorate. But it is often the older generation BJ players and AP's that make those statements, as they are very frustrated that conditions are not what they were in the 80's and 90's. Of course they (and you) are correct, conditions are worse than 20+ years ago. You cannot sit at a single table, with a low house edge of less than .3% and spread all night long at that same table and call it a days work. So I certainly see why older players are so negative, many have given up the game and/or moved on to other things, in and outside of AP.
However those of us that started our careers in the past 15 years are not nearly as frustrated with games like H17, that produce a house edge of double what it was 20+ years ago. It is all we have ever known. This is what we grew up playing and learned to beat. Instead of sitting at the same table all night, we know we have to jump around avoiding at least some of the negative counts. And we know we have to employ larger spreads, which require a bigger BR and will result in more variance and bigger swings. So we aren't as frustrated. This is all we know. I mean if you want to provide me with a time machine, I will gladly go back 25 years and play better conditions and not have to jump around all night. :) But in the absence of that, I play what is available and I learned to beat.
The mathematics still works exactly the same today. It is just a little bigger house advantage which means you have to attack the game differently, with larger spreads and escaping at least some of the negative counts (wonging). Now there are some conditions today that are unplayable (at least to me), like 6:5 games and Continuing Shuffling Machine (CSM) games (not to be confused with Automatic Shuffling Machines (ASM) which are very playable). Here in Vegas, both these conditions have remained limited to the lower end games, the $5 and $10 games. The $25 and above tables that I play are minimally effected....so far.
Yep it is tougher than it was 25 years ago, not that I would, know, since today's situations are all I have ever known. Pit and surveillance knowledge and technology have advanced. This is a second reason why we have to jump around as opposed to sitting and playing one table all night. It isn't so much that we are trying to trick them, more about comfort and tolerance levels. Short sessions generally equals smaller wins (and losses), but particularly wins. You avoid those big wins and cashouts that draw attention and someone has to answer for.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
A player today must learn the tolerance levels of different casinos and different shift. That is how you achieve longevity.
Thank you, and I am. I don't say that in a cocky way. The edges are smaller and you have to adjust your plan of attack from 20+ years ago and I have. Few BJ players today bother. Most move on to other things. Many of those players consider me a dinosaur. lol. That's ok. :) I am proud and so very happy, that I can earn a living playing a game that I still love.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Get real. The only reason you hang around casinos is because you like collecting food stamps, free rent, Medicaid, and paying no taxes....and you somehow are able to ignore the sickness of eyeing all the young men who flutter by you.
You are one very angry and bitter old dude. The path to happiness is not just belittling and tearing down others. I hope you find some real happiness and in life.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I thought you blocked him...now you are counseling him?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
No I am not. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Recently there was a national news story of airport FRS identifying a man who has been on the run, living with new identity for 30 years. That was impressive. But that same expertise and efficacy does not seem to have made it's way to the casino industry. I have a friend that works the pits of one of the strip casinos who constantly tells me the FRS is not very good and rarely identifies anyone.
Perhaps government technology is at a higher level than what the casino industry uses? :confused: Or more probably, it has something to do with the expertise of the people using the software. Technology is only as good as the people using it! And casino surveillance is usually spread pretty thin, underpaid, and likely under trained.
However advances in technology, and the expertise of those operating it, remains a concern for me going forward. :(
Unfortunately when I visit the site prior to logging in I will see his posts. Only once I log in, do I not see them. But thanks for reminding me, that he is just not worth interacting with. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYou are one very angry and bitter old dude. The path to happiness is not just belittling and tearing down others. I hope you find some real happiness and in life.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Not being married to, and having to look at Sasquatch`s twin sister every day he won`t :eek:....Belly`s still happy tho, he still has the boys HS locker room :)
When people respond (quote) to Rob Stringer, it'd be awesome if you could delete the content of the quote or just not quote at all. Or better yet, be like KJ and me, and just block him. :)
In 8/5 Bonus it is the 2-Pair and Jacks or Better that make the majority of the "return" on the game. The bigger hands just give you a little boost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonIt's not the royals... it's the quads. Playing 8/5 Bonus any run of the mill quad pays $3125. The bigger quads pay $5000 or $10,000 for aces.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYes, you are right. The numbers are relative. Like Rob hitting a $100,000 jackpot only one time in ten years. That is exactly what a $25 denom royal pays. So he hit one royal in ten years. Does that tell you anything? It speaks volumes to me. If you hit only one royal in ten years at $25 denom....then you didn't play $25 denom a whole lot in that ten year span.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If Rob's special plays increase the number of quads he can win $100k a year.
And I think he says he hit two $100k royals.
Mickey's wishing & hoping from a barstool doesn't alter history. But he does present a good picture on why he shouldn't be asserting things on a play strategy he really knows nothing about.
I hit one $100k royal in my ten years of pro play. I also hit multiple $10 royals and a lot at $5 and below because by design, that's where the majority of my play was. It is not a strategy that depends on or even requires royals to be successful. It relies on the quads--esp. the ones that pay 200/400/600/800 and more. And that's the main reason the special plays which deviate from optimal strategy were developed.
If you recall mickey (or at least after your next gulp) the large bankroll of $57,200 doesn't need a whole lot of luck to achieve a 5%-of-br win goal--which is reachable with quads in the majority of cases. The royals came, and they came a little more often than the math books (and redietz' university professors) say they should. But that only sheds more light on the fact that I regularly state: "yes, the devastating losses will come, but the huge winners far more than make up for them". And all the while, the smaller winning sessions ($2500 - $5k, $6k, etc.) just keep on coming.
Please pay attention.
I am wondering how anyone can really make any kind of real money nowadays playing blackjack. The casinos are just too paranoid, to the point where they either kick you for the slightest suspicion of counting, or simply degrade the game to where it's unbeatable.
I found that, with the exception of casinos in out-of-the-way places such as Puerto Rico, any attempt at counting on my part gets noticed too quickly, and I'm kicked from the game.
It got frustrating to the point where I've mostly quit blackjack. Also, the consolidation of casinos under MGM and/or Caesars banners gave me fewer choices, as I do not want a ban at either of those property groups.
Regarding this forum and APs, I want to say that I sincerely appreciate any APs who wish to post here.
If we get enough of them, I'll even consider making a private AP-only section where people can trade knowledge or discuss potential angles.
For the moment, I am happy that we have some actual APs posting here, and they should be treated with respect for what they've accomplished, rather than mocked or doubted.
Sure, there are phony APs who claim to be winners yet actually play losing or overly-high-variance strategies.
Sure, there are APs with gambling issues or insufficient bankrolls who end up going broke.
However, there is a very real subset of "gamblers" out there who have beaten the casinos for years, and that's a claim few can make.
It is true that it's getting much harder to beat casinos nowadays. Comps have been degraded, loopholes have been closed, and perhaps most disheartening, the "small losing non-AP" is being dismissed as not worth the casino's time (except at very high limits), thus trickling down and harming the APs who have found ways to turn those small-loss games into winners.
It is foolish to approach gambling results with, "If I won today, I made a good bet". That's what casinos want you to think. They don't want you to lose every time you play. They want you to win just enough to believe you have a chance, but to lose enough above that to make your business worthwhile.
Casinos detest real APs because they know they will lose to them in the long run. Even when casinos get lucky and beat an AP long term, they know that the AP community as a whole has crushed them.
That's funny...you said almost the same exact thing one year ago, when I posted here (the bet what thread). At that time, you asked how I was able to make a living in these current conditions. I recently replied. (while you were on vacation I guess.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?
And the hits just keep on coming...
Dan Druff,
I know this is your forum and you call the shots, plus you could toss me with a simple click of your mouse. Since the left wing liberal meatballs recently confirmed the First Amendment only exists when it’s beneficial for their talking points; your comment above stating ALLEGED “actual AP’s posting here, should be treated with respect for what they’ve accomplished, rather than mocked or doubted” confirms the First Amendment is also not welcome here.
Most people here are grown adults (most) that know firsthand what it costs to raise a family safe and securely to adulthood, (or even just themselves) plus to secure their own security during their senior years when they no longer can work. When you compound that goal with the additional ridiculous costs to achieve the same in today’s market, you must agree it’s a tough and ruthless grind for most.
I’m not going to go over all the factual unavoidable known expenses that come with any normal lifetime. Most here already know firsthand what that is and what’s involved.
I have a hard time believing even BJ in today’s casinos is a good enough source of income to achieve this lifetime goal for most. The key word here is lifetime. Kewlj insists this is possible, and maybe it is for him. But, trying to convince me the amount of alleged BJ AP’s all over these different gambling forums are pulling 100k and much more out of casinos not only for over a decade already, but plan on getting away with it throughout the rest of their lifetime just don’t make sense to me.
Now when you toss in the endless AP machine pros, card flashing dealers, comps, promotions, cashbacks, progressive jackpots, etc. where luck plays even a bigger factor than card counting, while traveling all over the country to do it, is something that would require some type of proof that a secure and safe lifetime was achieved at least one time by someone. Some of these AP's even talk about teams. Just how many families are they supporting? Making absurd claims on a forum with typed words doesn’t have me convinced. Forcing me and others not to mock or doubt these unproven claims is explained in my first paragraph.
I’m not saying there aren’t any smart math people out there that could catch the right thing at the right time and pick up a few bucks. Maybe, a good and fun side job.
Blackhole, I count five or six APs on this site (I don't count as I'm not an AP). That doesn't qualify as "endless machine pros." Now if you're encountering mega-APs on other sites, your point in coming here and telling people about it is what?
Are you in the business of debunking APs? Great. I suggest an argument better than that it's a hard life, and they'd provide more security for their families if they did something else that was worthwhile. That's not much of a debunking. The same could be said of being a gardener, or a soldier (somewhat risky, eh, for the salary?), or being one of the 50 million Americans working in service jobs (that's an undercount, but I'm rounding).
You give no details on exactly how or why the APs are lying or misrepresenting. You knew nothing about facial recognition yet you touted it as a big drawback. It's not. You haven't debunked anything they have said in any concrete way, which means you don't know much about what they do or how they do it. You're laughably upset because you contacted two APs who don't want to have dinner with you. Do you understand how psychotic that sounds? Based on your posts here, who would want to have dinner with you, AP or not?
I run into people like you every week. You have some cash, and you haven't figured out the casino game. You lose. You sit there and tally up what you've donated lifetime and it makes you sick. How can some unsuccessful scumbags, maybe liberal and non-thoroughbred-owning (LOL), beat a game you can't solve?
Hard to believe, eh? But what really sticks in the craw of the people I meet like you -- is that you don't have the discipline or the will to walk away. There's the rub. The APs abide by a code of existence where they walk away or quit when the odds tilt against them. And you simply can't do that. You frame it as you won't do it, but it comes down to that you can't do it.
And that's why you try to debunk APs. It's not the fact they win. It's the fact they can walk away if they think they're going to lose.
And you can't.
My only response to redietz baseless unconfirmed pro AP claims is to play his theme song..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRb88V8L8us
I don't see any baseless pro AP claims in the post above. You might want to check my previous 3000 posts and see if I've made any.
My suggestion to you, blackhole, is to quit gambling. You'll lead a healthier, happier, more productive life.
This is funny stuff. It's already been determined that anyone who likes to identify themselves as an "AP'" here does so with the qualifier that they say NOTHING about the "fantastic, edge-happy plays" they claim to know about, they will only post as anonymous cowards so they can keep on making stuff up about themselves, and not one of them will provide any sort of proof that they "win" except to quote theory from math books. You know, the same talking points the casinos use.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonWhat a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?
And the hits just keep on coming...
So for it to be suggested that these chumps could EVER provide any kind of worthy information or even discussions, outside of the pretend and wannabee arena, that would be more than a big laugh.
All they've ever proven is that AP is nothing more than a simple, justification-laced, state of mind.
I love these retarded rants. All they do is fish for information. Are we supposed to just say, "my name is Joe Blow and I play this game, at (insert casino name), against these specific dealers." If so, you're out of your fucking mind!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerThis is funny stuff. It's already been determined that anyone who likes to identify themselves as an "AP'" here does so with the qualifier that they say NOTHING about the "fantastic, edge-happy plays" they claim to know about, they will only post as anonymous cowards so they can keep on making stuff up about themselves, and not one of them will provide any sort of proof that they "win" except to quote theory from math books. You know, the same talking points the casinos use.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonWhat a can of worms this will be. I can imagine it now:Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1. How do you decide who is an AP?
2. How do APs prove they are APs?
3. Will APs post their secrets in such a forum?
4. Don't APs say they keep their secrets to themselves but now they'll post in a forum open to "only" APs?
5. How do the APs know that only APs have access to the forum?
And the hits just keep on coming...
So for it to be suggested that these chumps could EVER provide any kind of worthy information or even discussions, outside of the pretend and wannabee arena, that would be more than a big laugh.
All they've ever proven is that AP is nothing more than a simple, justification-laced, state of mind.
If people don't want to believe, leave it that way. Opposite of what Rob says, I DONT want you to wise up about it.