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UNKewlJ isn't actually betting, just studying up and then nervously spouting what he thinks will make him appear legitimate. Hence the discrepancies and scrambling to Explain His Position when called out.
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Originally Posted by MaxPen
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Originally Posted by MDawgWhich of course fits the pattern of that he doesn't actually play and lifts anything he has to say from other sources.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
Axelwolf's last statement is, technically, correct. For example, it can depend on the utility the bonus has to other, previous investments.
If that's too arcane a statement, good. I'm sure Axelwolf gets it.
Wow, that sounds like lots of work.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYou can go thru Druff's threads in the Sportsbetting section where he makes his picks going back to 2019, I think. He covered NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL. I went thru his threads once and determined he picked around 50%, except for the great run he had, I think it was last year in the NFL.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.
I will have to apologize, I think I may have missed this post. To avoid having a big wall of text I'm going to comment or question a few different times and just quote the entire post because I'm too lazy to individually cut out segments.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
For the most part, this is pretty some pretty solid stuff, I like it. I do love the fact that you were able to incorporate information from people like Michael Shackelford and HalfSmoke( I'm sure Red will point out that people were doing this stuff before him, and that's true but I'm not sure who's putting that information out there in one easy to access well-known website) it sounds like you got a pretty good handle on that and you are using it efficiently.
I would like to point out that there are more efficient ways to handle bonus churning, rebates, and various other sports bonus promotions. This involves extra math and calculations, admittedly I suck at this. Part of this would be taking long shots, using parlays, + money lines, larger bets etc.
Don't forget, anytime you lose and don't have to finish the wagering requirements improves your EV drastically. This is a foreign concept to the average person they will wonder and ask "How can losing improve your advantage?"
As I pointed out before oftentimes you are restricted to the type of odds and Bets you can make so you can't always use those techniques.
Please direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus. As far as I know, there is only one reputable place doing so and you said you don't play there. BetUS Does have a publicly stated 200% new player bonus. But this is where I say misunderstandings can happen you think you're getting one thing but you're really not. It's a 150% bonus on sports and a mostly worthless 50% on slots with huge wagering requirements(30x or somthing like that) on gaffed/ very low payback slots locked into the bonus casino. There may even be a cap on the amount you can win from the casino bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
The entire host email exchange eerily reminds me of the exchanges I have had with guess who? That's right, BetUS with just different numbers.
I do find the negotiation numbers odd, I have almost never had a host offer me a strange amount like 120%, it's normally 10%, 20%, 25%, 50%, 100%,125%, 150%, or 200%.
Whenever Im offered a low 5x roll its never 120% its normally 50%. Your offers are just drastically better than everyone else's.
120% free bets with a 5x roll at a reputable book. Yeah, I'm going to crush that situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfPlease direct me to the Casino that has a publicly stated 200% bonus. As far as I know, there is only one reputable place doing so and you said you don't play there. BetUS Does have a publicly stated 200% new player bonus. But this is where I say misunderstandings can happen you think you're getting one thing but you're really not. It's a 150% bonus on sports and a mostly worthless 50% on slots with huge wagering requirements(30x or somthing like that) on gaffed/ very low payback slots locked into the bonus casino. There may even be a cap on the amount you can win from the casino bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
The entire host email exchange eerily reminds me of the exchanges I have had with guess who? That's right, BetUS with just different numbers.
I do find the negotiation numbers odd, I have almost never had a host offer me a strange amount like 120%, it's normally 100%,125%, 150%, or 200%.
Whenever Im offered a low 5x roll its never 120% its normally 50%. Your offers are just drastically better than everyone else's.
[QUOTE=AxelWolf;187154 Wow, that sounds like lots of work. Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.[/QUOTE]
Wasn't much work at all. I just looked at his YTD totals. Last year (2023-2024) in NFL he went 25-25 +0.10 units. It was easy enough to determine that he includes money line bets in his totals. His very first bet of the year was Detroit +175. Detroit won. So he listed his YTD as 1-0 +1.75 units.
He won his super bowl bet so was actually 26-25.
Look at post #62:
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...FL-picks/page4
At 2024 NCAAF he went 21-31 and said he would probably give up college football.
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Originally Posted by AxelWolf
YouWager currently has a 200% bonus, with high rollover. THAT was the book that made me a better offer.
I don't know what the fuck your problem is. You have gone all coach belly on me, trying to find some kind of gottch ya moment. FUCK YOU axelwolf!
Druff had an excellent 2022 NFL season going 53-32-2 +25.89 units.
Look at post #130
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4
2022 NCAAF he went 50-44-1 +6.4 units.
Look at Post #63
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll-picks/page4
2022 was Druff's first year publishing his football picks. Overall he was 79-57-3 and +25.79 units in the NFL. Pretty good record.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
College football he was. 71-75-1 -4.23 units
For this year in the NFL the last time he updated,11-18-24, he was 17-17-4 +1 unit. So now we have a grand total of 96-74-7 +24.79 units in the NFL. Still pretty good. Although skewed by money line picks.
I'm not sure what the issue is with stating what major sports book has xy or z promo in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
YouWager currently has a 200% bonus, with high rollover. THAT was the book that made me a better offer.
I don't know what the fuck your problem is. You have gone all coach belly on me, trying to find some kind of gottch ya moment. FUCK YOU axelwolf!
YouWagers general promotions are normally capped to small amounts(100-300) when getting bigger percentages so I generally skip that promotion and hold out for better. I know someome who wagers a significant amount there(he is not an AP) I'll have to find out what deals they get from their agent.
I'm trying to figure out what the possible EV is that you are getting how one should best attack a particular bonus and how a recreational bettor one gets 20k in bonuses with a 5.6 roll on average and see if there are misunderstandings.
But you getting too paranoid and are going off the rails again so have fun going back to your regularly scheduled program and discussing all the hatred aimed at you.
.
He has to protect his lies ... no I mean his identity. Lol kewl.
The kewl-J is slippery like the eel, so yer never gonna pin him down on his bulls-shits, talls tale and fictional narrative, hey hey.
People! Hear me out! Listen to the maths!
Yeah, because Math doesn't matter in gambling and advantage play right AcctinQ?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Lets just have people like Mdawg and Singer, Evenbob, and now this Soxfan spewing all kinds of ridiculous claims that defy the math. Lets just have forums be an extension of the youtube videos and people like Christopher Mitchell, Mikki Maze, and the blackjack army guy, why don't we?
Is it really asking too much to have whatever claims people make to work mathematically and not defy the math? And not just have some hocus pocus, nonsense like "Special plays" or rainman nonsense? Is that really too much to ask?
There is a forum filled with all that gambling nonsense. It is actually called gambling forums. Mdawg posts there, Soxfan posts there, Singer and Evenbob/spike used to post there, along with many other baccarat and roulette silly system players, making ridiculous claims. Do we really need that here too? At the very least, have the math work for whatever claim you are making.
My Bookie offering a Cyber Monday deal of 10% cash bonus up to $1000 with a 1x rollover.
You can take it from there and determine if it’s a good offer compared to your current ones.
CYBMONDAY10
And that is THIS forum and every forum at which you post.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
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Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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Originally Posted by Dan Druff
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;187160]Made a mistake with the last sentence. It was the 2023 season druff went 21-31. He didn’t publish NCAAF picks for the 2024 season.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf;187154 Wow, that sounds like lots of work. Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.[/QUOTE
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Originally Posted by The Boz
Hey, Boz.
For the record, two of the offshores kewlJ uses, Oddsmaker and Youwager.eu, have monster bonuses currently in place also. Oddsmaker is really onerous with their rollover, but the initial bonus is cash and it's huge, along with a casino chunk. Youwager is rock solid. Bonus not nearly as onerous, but it's free play.
Not sure if kewlJ already reported this but we may as well be useful.
Youwager.eu gives a referral bonus also, so if anyone has a friend who wants to play, A should sign up before B and refer him.
Oddsmaker rarely has an end-of-bellcurve line, and they way overcharge if you try to buy half points. I have never had an issue with them. I put through at least 500K lifetime, maybe closer to 750K.
Youwager has that small book feel, but they are very professional. They have some free perks, like an NFL contest and picking exact score of Thursday and Monday night. You'd think that was impossible, but I actually did it twice in three years. You split 5K or 10K with whoever else does it. Quick self-promo: picking six NFL sides a week is a fool's errand, but after losing with the Browns +6 last night (gag me with a spoon), I'm 55th out of 800+ in their NFL contest, nine games over .500 (no easy feat).
Now we can hear it from the local self-defined "APs" how we don't give them anything. LOL.
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;187160]I was able to cull out Druffs money line picks for the 2023 season. He went 3-8. He took the dog on every bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf;187154 Wow, that sounds like lots of work. Does that 50% include +and - money lines? If so, is he in the red or black? Obviously, if you are winning 50% and a majority of your picks are bet on +money you should be doing well.[/QUOTE
That would mean he went 22-17 betting the spread.
I culled out the money line bets. He went 3-7 taking all but one dog. That’s means he was 14-10 thru nov 18 on spread bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Druff was actually 54-32 in 2022 if you include the Super Bowl. He made 26 money line bets on dogs going 11-15. That means his spread bets went 43-17.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
So from the 2022 season thru 11-18-2024 Druff went 79-44 on his bets against the spread. He went 17-30 on his money line bets. It looks like he came in around even on the money line bets but crushed it on the spread bets.
It is good to see some handicappers listing their picks to extent it can actually be vvalidated. Thanks for the work, Mickey.
The problem here is that presumably even if druff originated his picks - there is likely an overlap with other sharp bets. From my understanding betting only these might lead to limiting? I wouldn't mind funding an account and following them .. even if limited who cares? The question is whether the counter party risks outweigh druffs value. These are the sort of questions answered by EV though which means redietz won't weigh in with his hocus-pocus
If you had any idea how juvenile what you just wrote actually was -- LOL -- you'd stay anonymous. Have you ever actually had a conversation with anyone who wagers serious money on sports in Las Vegas or offshore?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Do you have any blessed idea how truly insipid what you just typed and posted is? I suppose not.
Yeah, EV will answer these. Good Lord. This is one of those moments when, as I've said about other stuff, you halfway think somebody has some idea what they are talking about, and then they say something in your wheelhouse and it forces you to realize that the only reason they seem knowledgeable in those other subjects is because you are not.
Account, I appreciate your forthrightness. I don't feel motivated to comment, correct, or even LOL anything you say going forward. Saves me some grief.
Jesus, some of you are truly in love with yourselves while managing complete self-blindness. If it wasn't so frightening, it'd be funny. "APs." Jiminy Crickets.
The last SuperBowl party I went to was well over 10 years ago and the dudes at the party covered a third of what LV lost on the superbowl. Granted it is going off my memory but I believe this to be roughly true and not an exaggeration in any way. I didn't bet much but I drank too much.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzIf you had any idea how juvenile what you just wrote actually was -- LOL -- you'd stay anonymous. Have you ever actually had a conversation with anyone who wagers serious money on sports in Las Vegas or offshore?Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Do you have any blessed idea how truly insipid what you just typed and posted is? I suppose not.
Yeah, EV will answer these. Good Lord. This is one of those moments when, as I've said about other stuff, you halfway think somebody has some idea what they are talking about, and then they say something in your wheelhouse and it forces you to realize that the only reason they seem knowledgeable in those other subjects is because you are not.
Account, I appreciate your forthrightness. I don't feel motivated to comment, correct, or even LOL anything you say going forward. Saves me some grief.
Jesus, some of you are truly in love with yourselves while managing complete self-blindness. If it wasn't so frightening, it'd be funny. "APs." Jiminy Crickets.
Anyway lol redietz I still stand 100% behind what I said. Of course you won't engage because you'd be defending wrong opinions. A difficult thing to do and you're not going to look any better in the process. You're doing the second sharpest thing outside of never responding period. LOL
Thank you for not adding hocus btw
Kewl, have at em!
I don't think that 123 wager is the significant sampled size, hey hey.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Druff got limited by 90% on Betanysports after an 18-2 run to start the 2022 season.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I cannot imagine what would lead me to being a professional sports better but it could be interesting to put a couple of 1000 in an account and sweat druffs pics. Social media has screwed that game. Hammering it into people how to be sharp. Even I'd you bet a lot of 0 ev bets your closing value is going to work its way to the top. I just don't see it worth it unless you purely enjoy it. After you factor in chances of being stiffed I can't imagine the endeavor having a positive expectation.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmDruff got limited by 90% on Betanysports after an 18-2 run to start the 2022 season.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Does Druff consider himself a professional sports better? That is a sincere question. I don't know. He still plays poker at least in the big tournament every year. I don't know how often he cashes, especially with the buying pieces of one another that goes on now. He also seems to post about video poker periodically. I just assume whatever he is playing with that is at an advantage. Maybe not. I don't know.
What else does or might he do outside of gambling. I don't know that either.
But I am not under the impression that whatever sports betting he is doing is anything more than supplemental at best. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. That is exactly what I have done for the past couple years, supplemental sport betting. Just so happens this year will be the most of my several streams of AP income. Next year maybe not.
I would like to know more about what Druff does. I guess mickey is the guy to ask. He seems to know a lot about Druff.
Is this the kind of talking to you gave your clients who obviously didn’t know Jack shit or they wouldn’t need you? Or did you keep your nose slammed up theirs asses to keep their business?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Don’t know much about Druff. Don’t know if he started with nothing and built a huge roll, probably 7 figures. Or if he inherited a huge roll. Or if he made it in the private sector then moved to gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
But he is doing what redietz says can’t be done, successfully working multiple venues in gambling. Poker, sportsbetting, video poker. The Ditz mockingly refers to those of us who work multiple venues Leonardo Da AP’s. lol.
He is certain it can be done.
“It’s not what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so, that gets you in trouble.” Mark Twain
Our boy misses the point, as per usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmDon’t know much about Druff. Don’t know if he started with nothing and built a huge roll, probably 7 figures. Or if he inherited a huge roll. Or if he made it in the private sector then moved to gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
But he is doing what redietz says can’t be done, successfully working multiple venues in gambling. Poker, sportsbetting, video poker. The Ditz mockingly refers to those of us who work multiple venues Leonardo Da AP’s. lol.
He is certain it can be done.
“It’s not what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so, that gets you in trouble.” Mark Twain
It's not that you can't win at multiple endeavors.
It's the arrogance of the "APs," who are essentially civilians, thinking they are on some kind of par with actual handicappers. Every single thing mickey does vis-a-vis sports, I can do and have done. The key point is what exactly do "APs" think they can do sports betting that handicappers cannot? That's the ridiculous arrogance that permeates mickey's mindset -- that somehow he is on a level or above people who really know what they are doing. The bottom line is they can do everything he does PLUS bring to bear expertise. That expertise is not exactly an anchor weighing them down.
Also, the scale of "APing" is, and always has been with the exception of the occasional Phil Ivey and such, relatively pitiful compared to the consistent amounts of money involved with sports betting. So for the "APs" to consider themselves on some kind of financial par with the highest level sports bettors is, again, incredibly arrogant.
Leonardo Da APs.
The arrogance is all yours Red. It really is. Show me where any AP, well rounded Ap that does several different AP activities and has several different streams of AP income, that has ventured into sports has EVER (<- I am not allowed to Bold by Mcap decree) said they are better or on par with any sports handicapper that does exclusively that?
It is all in your mind. You have this paranoia, which leads to your arrogance, that AP's (doing a variety of things) are moving into your territory....and HOW DARE THEY!
Get over it. If you have really done what you claim for decades, even at a modest amount of money, nothing any AP does as part of his well rounded AP repertoire is a threat to you or your legacy, whatever you think that is.
LOL. I saw this coming for years. it's not the "APs" shifting to sports betting that's an issue. It's their Johhny Come Lately Look At Us We know What We're Doing....when you really do not.
Those books you hit up for bonuses -- kewlj, I had accounts there for many years, doing what you are doing, plus knowing what I'm doing. So now someone like you comes along, thinking you're fucking Magellan. It's comical.
What exactly do you think you can do that I don't do? And that I haven't done for decades?
Ask Dan. He tried to open an account at Heritage and was rebuffed. I have had an account there for many years. Do you know why I was allowed to have an account (past tense -- they are more public now; Dan could have an account)?
Hint: It's not because I lose money. It's because people want access to expertise and the opinions of that expertise.
You guys are like children. You think some freshman probability math and juggling multiple accounts makes you on a level with expert handicappers. It's comical.
Do you have any idea how much money and expertise has been brought to bear to conquer individual sports? How many programmers? How many programs running 24/7 for years to cull the information? Organize it. Search for correlations and weaknesses?
And you think some math lesson from Wizard of Odds is going to conquer sports betting? Not just one specific sport, mind you, but all sports betting? The naivete is unbelievable. On par with the arrogance.
This is your arrogance on FULL display Red. Where did I EVER say I was doing anything others can't? Where did I EVER say I was doing something YOU hadn't? :confused: This paranoia is all in your mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
As a matter of fact, when I started doing some sports betting/bonus stuff at an advantage, I specifically spelled out that I was doing small scale (4 books), as a supplemental to my regular AP play. Just so happens this year, it will be the biggest amount of my AP income streams. But I still expect that in future years, for however long I am able to do so, it will be a supplemental role to my AP income.
I really don't know what you are so bent out of shape about? :confused:
It would be like when Zenking announced on a forum (WoV), that he was coming to Las Vegas to count cards, if I flew off the handle thinking that is my turf....how dare he!
You know what I did instead? I contacted him privately and gave him tips, including a list of casinos that I play that I thought he would be able to play without much heat, and a list of casinos on the strip to stay away from. Of course he ignored my suggestions and went right for the casinos I said to avoid, but that is another matter. :rolleyes:
I had zero resentment of someone coming to try to do what I do. I don't know what the fuck your problem is. You don't own sports betting/handicapping.
I don't know why on earth someone who won some contests 30 years ago (supposedly) thinks they're some world-class expert. No one else is a handicapper to even compare themselves. Once you leave the realm of football your knowledge falls off a cliff. You've gotten better as if you've learned from twitter from what I've see n past couple a years. Years ago you appeared to have been living under a bridge. Amongst many things, you seemed to think it was hard to be limited. You mocked those who claimed otherwise - claiming it was an absurdity the books were "scared". You were so goofy.
Now you seem to have learned and now you just rail on the concept of APs. I can just imagine you shadow boxing the lamppost shadows every night listening to Eye of the Tiger in your $10 corded earphones.
https://youtu.be/CiIkBT-HFOA?feature=shared
Take this "AP"ollo Creed !!!
Let's just flip ditz' statement around.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
"It's the arrogance of the "handicappers" who are essentially civilians, thinking they are on some kind of par with actual MACHINE PROS. Every single thing REDIETZ does vis-a-vis MACHINES, I can do and have done. The key point is what exactly do "HANDICAPPERS" think they can do ON MACHINES that MACHINE PROS cannot? That's the ridiculous arrogance that permeates REDIETZ' mindset -- that somehow he is on a level or above people who really know what they are doing. The bottom line is they can do everything he does PLUS bring to bear expertise. That expertise is not exactly an anchor weighing them down."
You see how silly that is? Redietz must stay up all night thinking up these false narratives:
That I bet sports. (I don't bet sports)
That I said I can bet sports on par with sports handicappers? (where does he come up with this shit?)
The Ditz has gone full strawman. False narratives galore. Just makes the shit up as he goes. Talk about paranoid. This guy is more insecure than the cowardly lion.
Yep, big money being bet on sports. The biggest compulsive gamblers in the world are sports bettors. What kind of expertise do THEY have, ditz? Yeah, I know. Not all are compulsive. I've featured a lot of professional sports bettors in this thread. You are curiously uncurious about them. You just don't know much about your own world. It's like you are hiding from any kind of real publicity about what you do. Hiding from any scrutiny that real professional gamblers may give you.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Yeah, sure. You can brag yourself up to those of us on this forum. But you are hiding from making yourself known to current high level professional sports bettors. Why? Afraid of the scrutiny?
And this "So for the AP's to consider themselves on some kind of par with the highest level sports bettors is, again, incredibly arrogant" is another of your false allegations. No AP in this forum has ever said anything like that. But one thing we do know. You are not on their level either.
If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There's a quote for the ages.
Mention it on Life is a Gamble. Have you contacted Munchkin yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIf you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There's a quote for the ages.
Redietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
There's a quote for the ages.
What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.
This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.
The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.
Let's see if YOU can solve it.
Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmRedietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
There's a quote for the ages.
What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.
This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.
The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.
Let's see if YOU can solve it.
PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.
Are the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+BQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.
Sports betting is NOT the Top Dog of Advantage Play. It pales in comparison to horses.
You are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAre the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+BQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.
That sounds right. And I agree with the 8X also. I haven't fired a lot there recently. I should mention this -- I tortured them with some futures wagers the last five years or so, and they put the clamps on my futures betting, so I really don't wager much there unless I have a specific reason. I have no real complaints, and I have no idea if they put a low ceiling on futures risks for everyone, but I doubt other people have my low limits for these things. They overreacted. None of my wins was much more than 10K or maybe 15K at the outside.
The only negative I have to mention is occasionally they run a promo that requires you to go broke to use. For example, if you participate in their "Survivor" betting bonus, you get a free $250 if you wager a hundred bucks every week of the NFL season. Just one catch -- LOL. You've gotta have zero in the account to collect it.
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Originally Posted by kewlJYou are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.
KewlJ, I am cutting him a break. Everybody makes some obvious error in logic sometime. I respect him enough to privately explain the glitch without going into some histrionic hissy fit that's the purview of certain allegedly gay, allegedly blackjack-playing adolescents who spend waaaayyy too much time trying to convince forums that (1) they are one person and (2) they are professional gamblers. You are the first letters-on-a-page that I believe really does need "they" as a pronoun.
You really are a dick!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYou are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.
KewlJ, I am cutting him a break. Everybody makes some obvious error in logic sometime. I respect him enough to privately explain the glitch without going into some histrionic hissy fit that's the purview of certain allegedly gay, allegedly blackjack-playing adolescents who spend waaaayyy too much time trying to convince forums that (1) they are one person and (2) they are professional gamblers. You are the first letters-on-a-page that I believe really does need "they" as a pronoun.
I am an adolescent? I started posting on forums in 2006 or 2007. Will have to look on another forum to check. That was 17/18 years ago. If I wqas 3 them I would still be in my 20's making your statement false. But I wasn't 3 then, I was in my mid 20's then. This is the kind of stupid shit you say and frankly it is right up there with the stupid shit Mdawg says and Singer said for years. What happened to you dude? Seriously?
My brother is also a successful card counter/AP. Hard to believe, but I think he is coming up on 10 years now. (maybe 9). And yes, he read some of this and GF and had an interest for a little while of posting. We inquired at both forums and there was no way for him to do so, other than on my account. So he did for a little while. I wasn't thrilled with that arrangement. And then he lost interest and hasn't for quite a while. Anyone with half a brains should have been able to tell when he posted. We have very different styles. If you have a problem that he used to post on my account, you should take it up with Dan Druff, because we asked if there was any other way, like him creating his own account and were told no.
What redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzMickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmRedietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.
This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.
The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.
Let's see if YOU can solve it.
PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.
Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.
If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.
Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.
I don't know much about betting futures regarding the math and logic behind them in relationship to the +EV aspect, I leave that to the experts. I'm seeking high return low risk "investments" The lowest percentage bets I made was betting 2k on haflsmoke first 2 week method.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAre the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+BQuote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.
That sounds right. And I agree with the 8X also. I haven't fired a lot there recently. I should mention this -- I tortured them with some futures wagers the last five years or so, and they put the clamps on my futures betting, so I really don't wager much there unless I have a specific reason. I have no real complaints, and I have no idea if they put a low ceiling on futures risks for everyone, but I doubt other people have my low limits for these things. They overreacted. None of my wins was much more than 10K or maybe 15K at the outside.
The only negative I have to mention is occasionally they run a promo that requires you to go broke to use. For example, if you participate in their "Survivor" betting bonus, you get a free $250 if you wager a hundred bucks every week of the NFL season. Just one catch -- LOL. You've gotta have zero in the account to collect it.
Regarding the 150% with 8x I'm only finding that stuff on bigger deposits at lesser known places. So there's a chance of getting screwed.
I have been getting limited to $50/$100 on a few places but that's an easy problem to solve.
Another problem is getting redeposit bonuses after cashing out profits. I don't like accounts getting up to 30k+ no matter how reputable they are.
That problem is solvable but it's a pain in the ass..
I just use a program as I can't do keno math very well. I don't think one being able to do the math is the most important part of AP.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzMickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.
Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.
If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.
Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.
I know guys that are super good at math and get the general ABC of AP, but they really haven't any clue when, where or how to apply that math to best exploit opportunities.
The keno problem I put up was designed so redietz, or anyone else, couldn't just go to the wizard's keno calculator and get the answer. I don't know of any program that can do the problem I used. There might be one but I haven't found it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI just use a program as I can't do keno math very well. I don't think one being able to do the math is the most important part of AP.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhat redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.
If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.
Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.
I know guys that are super good at math and get the general ABC of AP, but they really haven't any clue when, where or how to apply that math to best exploit opportunities.
If I asked what the frequency of hitting a solid 7-spot you could easily get the answer on wizzes keno calculator, 40979.3. Same thing for the frequency of a 4 spot, 326.4, or 3 of 4, 23.12, or 2 of 4, 4.7.
But by making it a 7-spot with one way of 4 and one way of 3 , and you have to hit numbers in 4-spot and 3-spot at the same time, it complicates it so no one can't just go to the keno calculator and get the answer. Can you point to a program that can solve this particular keno math problem? I don't know of one.
BTW, the answer to the keno problem is 342.
I don't get that about how the math isn't the most important. How can you know the math but not know how to apply it? I do the math so I can apply it. There's no other reason to do it. For years now, still to this day, I have plays that no other AP works. Because I know the math and they don't. They have no clue it's a play.
For those who might be wondering how well Druff does on NBA betting here's some stats for the 2023-2024 season:
Druff was pretty much betting only over/unders. He started out the season betting exclusively overs because he thought the books were making the numbers to low. But by mid-season he was betting both unders and overs.
His record was 41-32.
He made only 4 sides bets and lost them all.
So far this season he's 4-3 on over/under, 5-3 against the spread, and 1-3 on the money line.
Totals run in streaks. Some make sense like baseball and more runs in the hotter month's. Weather can also come into play with football. Not as clear to me why such trends occur with basketball other than maybe players becoming more familiar with one another.
For whatever reason, just after the all star game there was a period where overs were hitting strong last NBA season and Druff identified this pretty quickly and had a good run, IIRC.
Mickey wasn't there some sport in the last year or two, I don't remember what, maybe college basketball, where Druff made a handful of picks, maybe 5 or 6 and went like 1-5 and then quickly pulled the plug saying something like "this isn't my sport". I found that interesting. And smart.
You are incorrect, cum breath...the ditz has you pegged...which you likely both enjoy.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Adolescence is the process of developing from a child into an adult.
Adolescence begins with the onset of physiologically normal puberty, and ends when an adult identity and behavior are accepted. This period of development is usually associated with the teenage years, but its physical, psychological or cultural expressions may begin earlier or end later.
I would doubt that anyone on this forum sucks more dick the coach belly.
I didn't elaborate enough or make it clear what I was tryingto say. The math is the most important but knowing exactly how to calculate isn't the most important. I could go in to great details with many examples. I'll try to just give a few.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThe keno problem I put up was designed so redietz, or anyone else, couldn't just go to the wizard's keno calculator and get the answer. I don't know of any program that can do the problem I used. There might be one but I haven't found it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI just use a program as I can't do keno math very well. I don't think one being able to do the math is the most important part of AP.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I know guys that are super good at math and get the general ABC of AP, but they really haven't any clue when, where or how to apply that math to best exploit opportunities.
If I asked what the frequency of hitting a solid 7-spot you could easily get the answer on wizzes keno calculator, 40979.3. Same thing for the frequency of a 4 spot, 326.4, or 3 of 4, 23.12, or 2 of 4, 4.7.
But by making it a 7-spot with one way of 4 and one way of 3 , and you have to hit numbers in 4-spot and 3-spot at the same time, it complicates it so no one can't just go to the keno calculator and get the answer. Can you point to a program that can solve this particular keno math problem? I don't know of one.
BTW, the answer to the keno problem is 342.
I don't get that about how the math isn't the most important. How can you know the math but not know how to apply it? I do the math so I can apply it. There's no other reason to do it. For years now, still to this day, I have plays that no other AP works. Because I know the math and they don't. They have no clue it's a play.
Let's take Fush Attack. I had zero math to go on when I first started, just a general idea of Video-poker but that didn't stop me.from knowing there was an advantage and making money playing it.
Let's take the Plaza loss rebate that caused a big hoopla on WOV. Here was a situation where both Mike and Bob missed the play not thinking outside the box
and knowing where to apply the math.
Let's do the math...how much dick do you suck?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIs this the kind of talking to you gave your clients who obviously didn’t know Jack shit or they wouldn’t need you? Or did you keep your nose slammed up theirs asses to keep their business?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I didn't take clients who didn't know Jack shit.
By the time I was 35, I was turning down as many people as I took. One of my entrance exam questions was to ask people, "How will you feel if we lose 10 in a row?" That usually was met with silence or some throat clearing. What I was looking for was a response like, "Well as long as we win more than we lose, I'm good with it."
That question kept a lot of the riff raff away. I liked doing the negative pitching.
The first time my better half met one of my long-time partners, I had opened a college season losing six in a row or something like that (albeit for small amounts of money). As we ate lunch in the Mirage (on her comp), the partner said something like, "Hey, Bob, it would be great if we won a game this month." It was pretty funny. She didn't know how to take the banter.
So you grilled your clients on losing streaks? Hahaha! How does that equate to them knowing anything about how to handicap a football game?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmIs this the kind of talking to you gave your clients who obviously didn’t know Jack shit or they wouldn’t need you? Or did you keep your nose slammed up theirs asses to keep their business?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I didn't take clients who didn't know Jack shit.
By the time I was 35, I was turning down as many people as I took. One of my entrance exam questions was to ask people, "How will you feel if we lose 10 in a row?" That usually was met with silence or some throat clearing. What I was looking for was a response like, "Well as long as we win more than we lose, I'm good with it."
That question kept a lot of the riff raff away. I liked doing the negative pitching.
The first time my better half met one of my long-time partners, I had opened a college season losing six in a row or something like that (albeit for small amounts of money). As we ate lunch in the Mirage (on her comp), the partner said something like, "Hey, Bob, it would be great if we won a game this month." It was pretty funny. She didn't know how to take the banter.
Should be what a good sports bettor says. All the good/successful sports bettors I know don't take on clients.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Why wouldn't they...aren't clients essentially a freeroll?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You have plenty of dough, but would you turn down $10K for your opinion on a game?
Wasn't there a point not long after I first got here, that people were grilling Redietz as to whether he was one of the sports hawker guys that took on clients and he swore up and down that he was not. That is NOT what he did. Now he did but he was careful about it. :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Here is the thing about those "hawkers", whether sports or ponies at horse track: If you can pick winners, why do you need to sell your picks and have "clients"? :confused:
No that's not true, you liar phony:mad:, he NEVER said that he had no clients, he said THAT he wasn't taking on any new clients:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
The reason why his service is profitable:cool: is because of math, you fucking dolt.:p
Do the math, or have your jew:rolleyes: do it for you since you swamp rats were never taught math:o.
Isn't it funny how quickly these guys go from trying to sound/act normal, to nasty.
WHO are YOU asking YOUR dumb question to, YOU fat slob?:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Everybody has YOU blocked:D, and quit the forum again.:p
Axelwolf may not know any successful "sports bettors," coach. All he has to go on is their word of their adventures. No third party verification.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhy wouldn't they...aren't clients essentially a freeroll?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You have plenty of dough, but would you turn down $10K for your opinion on a game?
The hilarious thing about what he said is, well, there are a couple of funny things.
Axelwolf, you want me to point them out or do you want to take a stab at figuring out what's oxymoronic about your statement?
This is good practice for any interviews down the road, so I don't mind educating the riff raff. And Axelwolf, you do sound pretty naive.
If you can make good burgers for yourself, why open a McDonald's? Or if you can make good sandwiches, why open a Subway?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWasn't there a point not long after I first got here, that people were grilling Redietz as to whether he was one of the sports hawker guys that took on clients and he swore up and down that he was not. That is NOT what he did. Now he did but he was careful about it. :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Here is the thing about those "hawkers", whether sports or ponies at horse track: If you can pick winners, why do you need to sell your picks and have "clients"? :confused:
LOL. Or how about...if you can do casino math, why teach it as an adjunct professor (another cool Shackleford dig)?
Or how about, "If you win gambling, why have a "Wizard of Odds" website?
You gotta hand it to kewlJ and Axel -- they "haven't thought things through." Skip to the 3:45 mark, but it's a great opening scene if you want to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53A5MtXhXXQ
Trying to stick a knife in someone who has been above reproach for 45 years. Don't you anonymous maroons have other hobbies?
And Axelwolf, still waiting on you realizing what was both revealing and oxymoronic about what you said regarding "knowing sports bettors."
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyNo that's not true, you liar phony:mad:, he NEVER said that he had no clients, he said THAT he wasn't taking on any new clients:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
The reason why his service is profitable:cool: is because of math, you fucking dolt.:p
Do the math, or have your jew:rolleyes: do it for you since you swamp rats were never taught math:o.
Hey, kewlJ, next interview I do, you're invited. I think you make an excellent Costello.
In all seriousness, kewlJ is just doing what he does best...make shit up.
The reason you don't see direct quotes about A,B, or C regarding me is because there are none. KewlJ just starts every post with, "I thought," "I seem to remember," or "Didn't you..." Of course, as a card counter, he likely does the same thing. "I think the count might be," "I seem to remember," and "Didn't the dealer..."
And finally, I'm really, really busy, but so nobody misses my Axelwolf responses, when I get a chance, I'll start up a thread explaining what is really very funny about some of Axelwolf's comments.
He just hasn't thought things through.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Tableplay, are you saying you think the shooter looks like Jake Gyllenhaal? Maybe but maybe a Jake G from 20-25 years ago.
I haven't followed the story closely, but I suspect the obvious motive will be that a family member, maybe mother or father was denied some kind of treatment option by Unitedhealthcare that the shooter thinks might have saved their life.
Yes. I thought it was funny (humorous) that Redietz posted an assassin look-a-like at about the time of the hit.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
We've opened quite a few cans of worms here and there's plenty I will address. In the meantime, please make a list of well-known Sports bettors and we shall see if I know any of them and if they will confirm as much.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzAxelwolf may not know any successful "sports bettors," coach. All he has to go on is their word of their adventures. No third party verification.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhy wouldn't they...aren't clients essentially a freeroll?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You have plenty of dough, but would you turn down $10K for your opinion on a game?
The hilarious thing about what he said is, well, there are a couple of funny things.
Axelwolf, you want me to point them out or do you want to take a stab at figuring out what's oxymoronic about your statement?
This is good practice for any interviews down the road, so I don't mind educating the riff raff. And Axelwolf, you do sound pretty naive.
This is a good question overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhy wouldn't they...aren't clients essentially a freeroll?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You have plenty of dough, but would you turn down $10K for your opinion on a game?
First off: Do you know that people are offering Red 10k for his opinion per game? If I thought my opinion was worth more than 10k in value to someone I would take that deal. I do have a conscience and want to sleep at night so I'm not waiting to get into a situation where I'm offering something that's BS and there's no way the guys paying have +EV above the 10k they are paying.