Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

Don't recall ever referring to myself as an expert. I've made mistakes gillions of times doing gambling math. That's why I usually go over it 3 or four times. In this case I didn't do it. But I immediately admitted I made a mistake.

The 2nd one you referred to is not a mistake at all. I said NSUD was closer to Ugly Ducks and it is. The two strategies almost mirror each other. That's because the flush and full house pay the same with the straight flush being just one off.

But ditz was still running a big deficit. Ugly Ducks is under 99%. That's a big deficit. Jean Scott did not advise him to play that game.

BTW, using a Jacks or Better game like Double Bonus to try to calculate a Deuce game like Ugly Ducks is just downright funny. I kept my mouth shut about it. Didn't criticize. But since I'm being now being criticized by the person that did it, hey what the hell?

Don't be shy, mickey. If every one of the 40 hours I spent in a year was playing NSUD at the 25-cent level, exactly how big an annual deficit was I running at 500 hands an hour?

My Jed Clampett cypherin' puts it at roughly $300. Annually. Sadly, mickey crimm is on record as considering a $300 annual loss a "big deficit."

The result of that "loss" would be 12 to 24 comped rooms, a dozen meals, and cashback. And senior drawings and all that.

Mickey emphasizes the theoretical in every post. That's because he almost never reports his actual results. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
You weren't playing NSUD, 99.7%. By your own admission you were playing Ugly Ducks, 98.9%. But sure, just a theoretical few hundred dollar loss at your speed and denom.

But we have an accounting anomaly. How does a $300 loss per year jive with "I finished $5000 winner."
The deficit is quite sizeable. 99.7 is .3% house edge and 98.9 is 1.1% house edge. That is close to 4x the rate of loss.

That is a "big deficit" when you are voluntarily giving up 3x + the house edge you need to be giving.

That is ploppy shit. That is not sharp. Or whatever you want to call it.