Now, having said all that (two posts because I got a cup of tea), do I use some semi-formal bet-sizing rules? Yes I do. I apply .7% of bankroll to each unit of a play. Do I assign some mathematical gravitas to my personal rules and regs? No, I do not. It's my OPINION about how to generally attack each week of betting. It's not a system draped in gravitas (I love that word, sorry). It's an OPINION about how to approach the distribution of bankroll.
The bottom line, as with all gambling, is the question of what is the utility of doing something? Unless you're a complete novice, there's not much upside in applying tools for random events to non-random events. It's like thinking that wearing sunglasses will protect you from nuclear fallout. And, more to the point, there are multiple downsides, including thinking that you have more control over the situation than you do. Thinking the situation in front of you is what you have the formulas to solve, when you really don't.
This has much in common with the +EV nonsense. If you want to describe EV in sports betting as it applies to arbitrage or middles shooting, be my guest. If you want to apply it in past tense, be my guest. But don't go applying some generalized EV rules to something where, as they say in investment ads, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Past performance, since sports betting is a permeable, non-random series of events, may be no guarantee of anything even close. Thinking it is may be a crutch, a way to feel good about what you're doing (or think you're doing).
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