He didn't respond because what he said that books would adjust the lines doesn't make sense. If the general public (ie ploppies or degen sports bettors) are over betting favorites and home teams, which they absolutely do, and there is a 16 year or 30 year trend that dogs +points cover, then why would the books adjust lines. The sports books are winning with this trend.

One other thing that I have touched on but want to again. This "first 2 weeks" play is only a subsection of a much larger play. Half smoke has also discussed this. Based on Wizards numbers of I believe 30 year, betting ALL away dogs for the entire season results in a slight advantage of 1 to 1.5%. And that is no small sample size. 30 years, 16 weeks, 16 games a week (probably 12 of them away teams are dogs getting points).

I will be playing this for the remainder of the NFL season. It is not something you will get rich off of, but add that to the bonus whoring, and a 1.5% profit on top of the bonus and it is a nice supplemental sports betting play.

And Red just hates that....an advantage player making money off a +EV sports play. Red hating it makes it even better.