Originally Posted by kewlJ
Just looked at the numbers for the 3 years that I have worked this 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play.
2025 - 13-15 (4 no plays for me that were either pickem's or +/- 1 pt)
2024 - 15-13 (4 no plays for me)
2023 - 20-12
That is a total of 48-40 for the 3 years. That works out to about a 4% advantage. 4% is lower than the 6% advantage over the last 16 years, but I will take it. That is how variance works.
So tell me again, how this play isn't +EV Bob Dietz. Perhaps you can explain that in the interview that you have pushed off for 2 years and is NEVER going to happen.
And yes, I will definitely be throwing my money on the underdogs + points in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Give me that 4, 5, 6 % EV and advantage. That is what advantage players do. Of course Bob Dietz wouldn't know about this.
BTW, for the last 3 years some of my wagers on this 1st 2 weeks play has been at online sports books (in addition to overflow wagers at books here in Vegas) , contributing towards the rollover requirements for my bonus play. So I have made money off that end also.
See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.
It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."
It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.
You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.
I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.
If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?
For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.
And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.
So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.
Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.
So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.
MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.
And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.
https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate
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