Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[RS__]

Yes, he would have to be ahead. But he has a pretty good risk/reward opportunity here. It's like betting on the hard-6 or hard-8 at craps.

In fact, a $1,000 bet on either the hard-6 or hard-8 would return $10,000.

Wanna make a bet with me? I'll lay 100 to 1. You get 100 rolls of the dice in a craps game. If you roll 10 yo's in a row at any point, you win. If you don't roll 10 yo's in a row, I win.

That's a pretty good risk/reward situation for you, isn't it?




You're totally right Rob, just as the sky is yellow.

[Alan Mendelson]

His 98% return equals a loss of $1,000 on a $50,000 coin in. You've never seen a player beat a 2% edge before? I'm afraid to clue you in... it happens all the time.

[Ozzy]

It's obvious belly is just trolling.

Yes it is,he's just a FatYellowPotBellyTroll,who knows what the great Singer,ate for his last meal.

[Ozzy]

Wanna make a bet with me? I'll lay 100 to 1. You get 100 rolls of the dice in a craps game. If you roll 10 yo's in a row at any point, you win. If you don't roll 10 yo's in a row, I win.

That's a pretty good risk/reward situation for you, isn't it?




You're totally right Rob, just as the sky is yellow.

Come on RS,make it interesting,give him 100 000 000 rolls to duplicate his world famous 18 yos.

[Ozzy]

It's rather obvious what Mickey was saying -- you are extremely unlikely to be ahead after 1M hands on a 98% return VP game.

Mickey didn't first explicitly write a single line game, nor a VP game, nor that it's a 98% return (you could say 98% advantage or a 198% return). Unless you're completely retarded, you'd know he meant a 98% return VP game and single line. What I think is both hilarious and a bit sad, is there are people who don't even gamble and/or know nothing about it, preaching the best way to play or how using win goals & stop losses would lead a player to winning. I don't take financial advice from my plumber and I don't take plumbing advice from my accountant.


Coach & co were never serious about this or anything else really. Coach just keeps asking questions without actually trying to have a serious discussion, trying to find a "gotcha" in all of this.

He's just trolling Mickey,like Singer is,only exception being,that ROB is at least funny as hell with his come backs,unlike PotBelly.

[Alan Mendelson]

Come on RS,make it interesting,give him 100 000 000 rolls to duplicate his world famous 18 yos.

Excuse me but to be clear: I only witnessed a shooter roll 18 yo's in a row. I didn't do it.

[redietz]

Speaking of Rob and his beloved Patriots. Rob, I may be able to scare up someone willing to wager against the Pats every game next season, but the money would have to be in escrow with Alan or Dan. Let me know if you have any interest.

[mickeycrimm]

His 98% return equals a loss of $1,000 on a $50,000 coin in. You've never seen a player beat a 2% edge before? I'm afraid to clue you in... it happens all the time.

Not in a 1 million hand sample space, Alan. That is what you don't understand.

[Alan Mendelson]

Not in a 1 million hand sample space, Alan. That is what you don't understand.

So... you are arguing that all numbers even out over time, right? I'll take a different approach: given one million hands there is more of an opportunity to beat the expected return.

Let me give you another scenario as to how someone playing a million hands could beat the expected return: without defining the denomination being played, a player could play at $25/coin for a limited number of hands then hit a big winner and for the remainder of the million hands play at 1-cent, one coin per hand preserving their win.

The point is simply this and I think everyone understands it now: if you're going to make a bet/challenge the rules and parameters must be laid out exactly. I think we are all guilty of making "bets" and challenges without thinking them thru.

Please recall, mickey, that I asked you to specifically say what your bet was. Your response was that you already wrote it. Well, as we can all see now, your original bet failed to give the specifics that opened the door to this entire discussion of what the bet really was.

[mickeycrimm]

Alan I made the statement "I would have no problem laying someone 100 to 1 that they would not be ahead on a 98% game after 1 million hands" off the top of my head. It was a rhetorical statement. I believe the odds are in the thousands to one that one would be ahead after a million hands. But then belly jumped in, doing his usual "gotcha" routine. I was placed in a position of having to back down or go through with it.

I hadn't thought about the logistics of such a bet. Belly kept pushing it trying to "gotcha" me. I felt I had no option, unless I wanted to go against my word, but to go through with it, albeit, on my terms. It will cost me a lot of lost productivity by having to monitor him on the play. But, pride being what it is, I have no intention of backing down and letting belly get over on me. So if he wants the bet he's got it, but on my terms.

Since belly wants to waste my time I'm sure going to waste his time and money. The challenge will take place in Montana. Like, I said, I'm damn sure not going to spend the money to have to hole up in New Jersey or Nevada to put the play down. When I made the statement it was in reference to a five-coin quarter single line game. That's exactly what he is going to have to play. If he intends to push me into the bet then I'm going to cost him a lot of money, period. He can fork out for his own room and board while he is here. My terms are non negotiable.

Now, in the meantime. I've just posted a question on vpFREE, the site that has the biggest concentration of professional video poker players. I've asked them what are the chances of being at breakeven after one million hands playing 7/5 Bonus Poker, a 98.01% game with a variance of 20.75. I'm hoping to get a response out of Dunbar Dre who created Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. Anyways, I'll post the results here if and when I get a response.

[mickeycrimm]

So... you are arguing that all numbers even out over time, right?.

Alan, I've learned a lot off of others. Here is a quote, the best I remember it, that goes to explain to me the difference between the short term and the long term:

"If a coin is flipped 10 times and it comes up tails 7 times I don't think anything about it. It's just short term variance. But if a coin is flipped 10,000 times and it comes up tails 7,000 times then either the coin tosser or the coin is crooked."
ARNOLD SNYDER

[coach belly]

I made the statement "I would have no problem laying someone 100 to 1 that they would not be ahead on a 98% game after 1 million hands"

Yeah...no problem...as long as the player is willing to spend 6 months, alone, in an un-named Montana slot parlor...aint that right faker?

That is straight-up wormm-speak, straight from a complete bullshit artist...the ickey earth wormm himself.

[bocce ball]

Yeah...no problem...as long as the player is willing to spend 6 months, alone, in an un-named Montana slot parlor...aint that right faker?

Sorry if I missed it, but what are the terms of your counterproposal?

[coach belly]

Sorry if I missed it, but what are the terms of your counterproposal?

There's no counter proposal, I agreed to the original terms.

He didn't reference any specific game, that's wormm-speak he added today.

[mickeycrimm]

Yellow Belly, why would you have a problem with the denom? After all, you are going to win, right? LMAO!

[coach belly]

Yellow Belly, why would you have a problem with the denom? After all, you are going to win, right? LMAO!

You're the one who is afraid of the denomination, that's why you added the restriction you faker.

I could change denomination before every deal, and that wouldn't affect the number of hands or the percentage.

Now you be careful ickey, the early birds are out...go wiggle your way back into your hole.

[mickeycrimm]

There's no counter proposal, I agreed to the original terms.

He didn't reference any specific game, that's wormm-speak he added today.

Okay, you agreed to a million hand challenge. So get your ass up here and lets go to it.

[bocce ball]

There's no counter proposal, I agreed to the original terms.

He didn't reference any specific game, that's wormm-speak he added today.

I'm not following the logic. By definition, the terms of a bet would include critical details such as game type. You couldn't possibly agree to the terms because he didn't specify them.

He provided a framework for a bet to be negotiated in good faith, which I think you understood when you posted this:

http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sho...ll=1#post45851

I'm willing to consider the wager, please explain the logistics of how this exercise would take place.

If you want to win the argument, I think you need to furnish some idea of a reasonable scenario that would be acceptable to you.

[coach belly]

the terms of a bet would include critical details such as game type.

I'll play a 98% game. He originally wrote a 98% game...then he eliminated all 98% games except those that would make the challenge unrealistic.

He provided a framework for a bet to be negotiated in good faith

Negotiated in good faith? He says his conditions are non-negotiable. His intention is to make the challenge unrealistic.

Alan explains that here:

You will play it on a single line game.

At 800 hands per hour, that's 1,250 hours or a little more than 52 days of non-stop play.

If someone were to play for 8 hours a day, it would now become a project that would take more than 150 days to complete.

Coach, you can do 100-play for this challenge (if you can find it).

On a 100 play machine at 800 hands per hour it's 12.5 hours.

the real reason I won't allow 100 play is if you get lucky and flop a few royals.

Seems to me that you are saying that you will not allow a fair bet?

What's the odds for getting dealt a royal?

1/629,740.

If you want to win the argument, I think you need to furnish some idea of a reasonable scenario that would be acceptable to you.

A million hands can be reasonably played on a 100-play machine.

A million hands is 10000 deals on a 100-play machine.

At 500 deals per hour, that's 20 hours... so 4 hours per day for 5 days will get it done.

Isn't that a reasonable scenario...especially considering what the wormm is proposing?

[mickeycrimm]

A million hands can be reasonably played on a 100-play machine. A million hands is 10000 deals on a 100-play machine. At 500 deals per hour, that's 20 hours... so 4 hours per day for 5 days will get it done. Isn't that a reasonable scenario...especially considering what the wormm is proposing?

Pot Belly, playing 10,000 deals on a 100 play is not the same thing as playing 1 million deals on a single line. Your absolute best chance to be at breakeven or ahead on a 98% game like 7/5 Bonus Poker is to play exactly one hand. You would have a 45.53% chance to be at breakeven or ahead playing just one hand. Every hand you play after that decreases your chances.

100 play is flop dependent. You don't stand much of a chance on a hundred play through 10,000 deals anyway. But with just 10,000 deals, it opens up the tiny possiblilty that you could get lucky and suck out on the bet by flopping a few big hands. I'm not stupid, buddy. I'm not going to do you any favors. You are going to play 1,000,000 deals. You are going to see a 1,000,000 hand distribution.

You are not going to manipulate my ass, Yellow Belly. I told you that before. So you can take my terms or kiss off.