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  1. #11
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post

    What today's game was about:
    1. Kelce almost always being distracted. CHECK.
    2. KC's lack of a consistent wideout. CHECK.
    3. Mahomes continued deterioration as an elite & feared accurate passer. CHECK.
    4. Philly being the same superior NFL team that won the SB. CHECK.

    1.5 dogs and whatever you meant?? This game had massive value from the start, because it had high +EV. It's the only game I bet on.
    Given all of what you said, and I agree with all of it
    And yet, you said there is no such thing as EXPECTED VALUE IN SPORTS BETTING.

    I was referring to the checklist, not the EV nonsense. The postscript below the checklist is gobbledygook. If people want to label their opinion with the phrase EV, well, God bless their arrogance.

    There is no such thing as EV in sports betting, outside of bonus whoring and rebates.

    Axelwolf, did I mention that I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, and I won (seven bucks on 12K in wagers) Week Four? No, no, no need to congratulate me. It's what I do.

    P.S. I hope you didn't help kewlJ with his EV calculations regarding NFL underdogs Weeks One and Two. I also hope kewlJ doesn't lose faith. He can plug in the same formula next season and explain he's accumulating value as he donates money to books based on his personal bizarro take on probability theory.
    Last edited by redietz; 09-15-2025 at 10:02 PM.

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