Professional Sportsbetting

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj you do have a good imagination and a script that you stick to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaxPen

FraudJ had a highly refined blackjack story that he worked for almost 2 decades before he outed himself as the tunnel dwelling male prostitute fraud that he is.:cool:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seedvalue

you are a very good fictional storyteller lol KJ is a fictional Author masquerading on gambling boards as a sophisticated multi table blackjack savant. :

You don’t make a living playing blackjack tho. That the problem I have with you. Instead of just coming clean and saying you have sugar daddies some that like you others you have extorted you keep up the charade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaxPen

Your blackjack story is well rehearsed.

Don't you have some imaginary baccarat sessions to play?

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Originally Posted by jdaewoo

Don't you have some imaginary baccarat sessions to play?

lol

There's absolutely nothing wrong with--and a whole lot right with--mdawg's persistence in the re-posting of various quotes from various members regarding what they've deduced after reading the various, poorly planned stories and collection of foolish lies as posted by the most notorious and disliked concoctionist on internet gaming forums.

Saying degrading things about mdawg in response to his very entertaining and effective kew-pounding only depicts envy of what may or may not be true about mdawg's reported gambling experiences, level of wealth, family etc.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

there is no simple answer.

There was no need to offer explanations of why a team is beneficial under circumstances not included in my questions. But that's what you did, and in the process you ducked the questions.

I've added yes or no questions, rephrasing to simplify the earlier questions that you didn't seem to understand, or didn't want to give a straight-forward answer to.

I'm now sure that you understand the questions, and the answers are simple...yes or no.

I'll try again...

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and pay you, even if they lost money on the play you gave them?

Have you given others your money to use on AP plays, and cut them in on the profits?

Have you given others your money to use on AP plays, and paid them even if their individual play did not profit?

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?:
Not that I can think of. That is not normally somthing I do. Can I say, never have I ever done that? No, I can't say that. We are talking about thousands of plays over decades dealing with a fuck ton of different people and many unique situations. There could have been some slam dunk plays where "using their own money" is moot since it's a negligible formality as it would be nearly impossible to lose.

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and pay you, even if they lost money on the play you gave them?:
Not that I ever remember.

Have you given others your money to use on AP plays, and cut them in on the profits?:
Yes, absolutely, many times.

Have you given others your money to use on AP plays, and paid them even if their individual play did not profit?:
Yes.

I normally put up my share or all the money on plays. You may be in a situation where "put up my share" doesn't mean physically handing them the money before they start the play, however, you are responsible for any losses that may occur. There are just so many unique situations and different people who are in different situations themselves.

But again, if you're trying to compare any of this to Red's situation, it's a moot point because it's apples and oranges.

You'd have to be a huge retard to be envious of imaginary baccarat sessions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

There's absolutely nothing wrong with--and a whole lot right with--mdawg's persistence in the re-posting of various quotes from various members regarding what they've deduced after reading the various, poorly planned stories and collection of foolish lies as posted by the most notorious and disliked concoctionist on internet gaming forums.

Saying degrading things about mdawg in response to his very entertaining and effective kew-pounding only depicts envy of what may or may not be true about mdawg's reported gambling experiences, level of wealth, family etc.

First I don't condone the hijacking of EVERY thread by Madwg to continue with his obsessive trolling. He has adequate threads, most started by him to troll me. There is no need to hijack this thread started by mickey, attempting to get to the bottom of Redietz's history and claims.

But since he has and Singer is piling on with his bullshit, Jdaewoo beat me to the punch and that is no one is, nor is it even possible to be envious of made up fantasy claims, whether it be Mdawgs win-every-day at baccarat/blackjack or Singers Newell and 1.5 million dollar jackpots . THESE are made up claims. It would be like being jealous of Scrooge McDuck or Billionaire Monty Burns on the Simpsons.

The only people REALLY jealous or envious of anyone are these two guys, Mdawg and Singer, making up such ridiculous stories and claims. They are obviously very envious of real players (just about every AP on this forum) that really win using advantage play methods and techniques. Otherwise there would be no need to make up what are so obvious and ridiculous claims that they do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I normally put up my share or all the money on plays. You may be in a situation where "put up my share" doesn't mean physically handing them the money before they start the play, however, you are responsible for any losses that may occur.

If you don't hand them the money to play, then where does the money to play come from?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

But again, if you're trying to compare any of this to Red's situation, it's a moot point because it's apples and oranges.

I disagree.

Just because it's not exactly what red is doing, doesn't mean that the arrangements are not comparable.

Take mickey's post below....

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Exoter was taking total greenhorns and signing them to a contract that he would teach them the plays then they had to go out on their own, play slots on their own money, and pay him half the win.

This corresponds to my question about you turning someone onto a play, where they use their own money for the play, and then cut you in on the profits.

You may not do that, and may not have ever done something like that, but isn't that what Integrity Sports does?

red finds a play, turns the client onto the play, the client bets their own money, and pays red a percentage of the profit.

JFTR, you have never sold a play, some play that you can't physically participate in?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I normally put up my share or all the money on plays. You may be in a situation where "put up my share" doesn't mean physically handing them the money before they start the play, however, you are responsible for any losses that may occur.

If you don't hand them the money to play, then where does the money to play come from?

Not everyone is broke. Some people have their own money to get started. If they lose they will bill me and I'll pay them whenever we meet up or after the play. Here's the thing, it's rare that I bring someone in on a play that isn't a slam dunk for the most part. The biggest risk I'm normal taking is getting fucked by the casino's and no paid on a promotion.

There's no hard fast rules as I said each play and individual is different.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

But again, if you're trying to compare any of this to Red's situation, it's a moot point because it's apples and oranges.

I disagree.

Just because it's not exactly what red is doing, doesn't mean that the arrangements are not comparable.

Take mickey's post below....

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Exoter was taking total greenhorns and signing them to a contract that he would teach them the plays then they had to go out on their own, play slots on their own money, and pay him half the win.

This corresponds to my question about you turning someone onto a play, where they use their own money for the play, and then cut you in on the profits.

You may not do that, and may not have ever done something like that, but isn't that what Integrity Sports does?

red finds a play, turns the client onto the play, the client bets their own money, and pays red a percentage of the profit.

JFTR, you have never sold a play, some play that you can't physically participate in?

Please read what Mickey wrote earlier.

I don't think Red is selling/giving out his picks. I think people give him money and he does the work for a percentage of the profit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Have you given others your money to use on AP plays, and cut them in on the profits?:

Yes, absolutely, many times.

This is also comparable to what red does.

A client, let's call him Axel, gives red money to use on a play, and then cuts red in on the profits.

Don't you agree that the arrangements are very similar?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I think people give him money and he does the work for a percentage of the profit.

What work is he doing?

What service or product is he selling?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Some people have their own money to get started.

Isn't that what I asked here?...what was your answer?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?

You explain what happens if they lose, but what if they win?

Haven't they used their own money, on a play that you gave them, and cut you in on the profits?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I think people give him money and he does the work for a percentage of the profit.

What work is he doing?

What service or product is he selling?

Why do you ask him yourself. I can only go by what he has said in the past and whatever his websites indicated. I already said this is a moot conversation until we know how his business model works.

And to answer your other question.

I don't recall if I have ever sold any plays, it's possible I have, but if I have it's been a very rare occasion and unique situation. I have bought and paid for plays and information on numerous occasions.

How and why is it that coach belly is now speaking for Redietz, seemingly knowing how he operates or operated? And where did he get this information from? Is Redietz feeding him these talking points? because most contradict what Redietz has claimed through most of this forum history.

For example, I damn well know Redietz denied any kind of recruiting of clients until mickeycrimm dug up an old Integrity sports website or webpage with the advertising pitch, including expected returns on it.

Now all of the sudden coach belly seems to know all about how Redietz's operation worked. Unless Belly was one of those clients, I would like to know where he is getting his information, because frankly he has a history of making things up in his defense of those he tries to defend, which is almost always those on the outside of reality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Some people have their own money to get started.

Isn't that what I asked here?...what was your answer?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?

You explain what happens if they lose, but what if they win?

Haven't they used their own money, on a play that you gave them, and cut you in on the profits?

If they win I pay them. If want to claim it's their money even though I'm 100% responsible for giving it back to them call it whatever you want. It's not that often that happens anyways. They consider it my money once it goes into the play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Some people have their own money to get started.

Isn't that what I asked here?...what was your answer?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?

You explain what happens if they lose, but what if they win?

Haven't they used their own money, on a play that you gave them, and cut you in on the profits?

And no, it's not the same.

I assume you were talking about a situation where I start calling people about plays and I expect them to use their own money, take all the risk and pay me money only if they make money, and I pay them nothing if they lose.

That's exactly how those touts and people who take on investors for sports betting work. If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad. Repeat this each year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

And no, it's not the same.

I assume you were talking about a situation where I start calling people about plays and I expect them to use their own money, take all the risk and pay me money only if they make money, and I pay them nothing if they lose.

That's exactly how those touts and people who take on investors for sports betting work. If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad. Repeat this each year.

Why would anybody agree to this arrangement? I guess maybe once, until they fully understand what is happening. But no one is going to stick with that arrangement are they?

And if not, then like most types of scams, the sports betting recruiters needs to find new "suckers" every year or cycle?

If this is indeed what Redietz was doing for 45 years, color me less than impressed with his sports betting career. :rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I assume you were talking about a situation where I start calling people about plays and I expect them to use their own money,

My question was straight-forward and clear, I never asked about calling people, and what was expected. Although if you didn't stake them, then you must have expected them to use money that didn't come from you...right?

But you made an assumption in order to duck the question.

Again..

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and cut you in on the profits?

First you answered "no" or "I don't recall".

Then, you gave an example where you did give others a play, they did use their own money, and you took a cut of the profits.

Don't waste time telling me what they consider, or which pockets their money goes into or out of.

They used their money on the play, and you took a cut of their win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

And no, it's not the same.

I assume you were talking about a situation where I start calling people about plays and I expect them to use their own money, take all the risk and pay me money only if they make money, and I pay them nothing if they lose.

That's exactly how those touts and people who take on investors for sports betting work. If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad. Repeat this each year.

Why would anybody agree to this arrangement? I guess maybe once, until they fully understand what is happening. But no one is going to stick with that arrangement are they?

And if not, then like most types of scams, the sports betting recruiters needs to find new "suckers" every year or cycle?

If this is indeed what Redietz was doing for 45 years, color me less than impressed with his sports betting career. :rolleyes:

I'm not saying that's how Red works. I'm saying that's a common thing in the sports world. We have guys giving our both sides of the game.

I just keep going back to what I said last week. If a sports bettor could really pick 57% consistently, why would he need to get involved with any of these other kind of shit. He would just pick winners for himself and spread his bets around. He could make a small fortune without any of this other hassle. It would literally be a license to print money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I think people give him money and he does the work for a percentage of the profit.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

What work is he doing?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Why do you ask him yourself.

You wrote that he does the work, what work you were talking about?

You're a professional gambler, you know how sports betting, analysis, information and advice works, right?

So use your imagination, what do you suppose you were talking about when you wrote "he does the work"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I have bought and paid for plays and information on numerous occasions.

I remember you stating that in the past.

It's unclear whether you ever sold plays or not, but on numerous occasions you did participate in the scheme of buying and selling plays.

Somebody turned you onto a play, you used your own money on the play, and you paid them even if the play lost...right?

This is the same scenario in my question below...

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Q. Have you turned others onto AP plays, where they use their own money, and pay you, even if they lost money on the play you gave them?:

A. Not that I ever remember.

Let's call the buyer Axel, and call the seller a "guru" named "Red".

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad.

Does that make Axel the chump?

Or is it just square biz, where you value the advice that the guru provides, and the guru considers you a client and not a chump?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

For example, I damn well know Redietz denied any kind of recruiting of clients until mickeycrimm dug up an old Integrity sports website or webpage

What talking points do you suppose Red could have fed me that would contradict your example above?

Do you doubt that he has clients?

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

In most cases there was an owner of the team that bankrolled the entire operation. Team members were just employee’s working for an hourly wage plus maybe a bonus. That’s how all the old video poker teams worked. I was offered jobs but always refused.

Frank Kneeland ran video poker teams for years. He said they didn't want employee's that knew to much or wanted to be professional gamblers. They didn't hire professional gamblers or anyone who aspired to be a professional gambler. They worked for an hourly wage, a bonus if they were the one to hit the royal, and slot club benefits. Potential employee's were given a video poker strategy sheet to study and were tested for their ability.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

For example, I damn well know Redietz denied any kind of recruiting of clients until mickeycrimm dug up an old Integrity sports website or webpage

What talking points do you suppose Red could have fed me that would contradict your example above?

Do you doubt that he has clients?

I really have no idea if he had or has clients. He always said he didn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

How and why is it that coach belly is now speaking for Redietz

How?...I'm using a laptop

Why?...because kicks just keep gettin harder to find

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

In most cases there was an owner of the team that bankrolled the entire operation. Team members were just employee’s working for an hourly wage plus maybe a bonus. That’s how all the old video poker teams worked. I was offered jobs but always refused.

Frank Kneeland ran video poker teams for years. He said they didn't want employee's that knew to much or wanted to be professional gamblers. They didn't hire professional gamblers or anyone who aspired to be a professional gambler. They worked for an hourly wage, a bonus if they were the one to hit the royal, and slot club benefits. Potential employee's were given a video poker strategy sheet to study and were tested for their ability.

This is the way a lot of blackjack teams operated 10-20 years ago. They wanted disposable or throw away players. I was involved with such a team for a short period 15 years ago. I knew what they were yp to but needed the money to build my BR. I got out quickly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

First I don't condone the hijacking of EVERY thread by Madwg to continue with his obsessive trolling. He has adequate threads, most started by him to troll me. There is no need to hijack this thread started by mickey, attempting to get to the bottom of Redietz's history and claims.

I started this thread to highlight professional sportsbetters in the media, like Captain Jack Andrews, Rufus Peabody, Chinamaniac, etc. It had nothing to do with redietz. Its human interest. I've always been curious of how other professional gamblers operate. That includes sports bettors. I thought it would be entertaining and educational. And I've always studied professional gamblers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

First I don't condone the hijacking of EVERY thread by Madwg to continue with his obsessive trolling. He has adequate threads, most started by him to troll me. There is no need to hijack this thread started by mickey, attempting to get to the bottom of Redietz's history and claims.

I started this thread to highlight professional sportsbetters in the media, like Captain Jack Andrews, Rufus Peabody, Chinamaniac, etc. It had nothing to do with redietz. Its human interest. I've always been curious of how other professional gamblers operate. That includes sports bettors. I thought it would be entertaining and educational.

Fair enough. But in the process you have exposed some inconsistencies about Red.

So based on your research, are you personally doing any sports betting these days mickey?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

why would he need to get involved with any of these other kind of shit.

Because he makes more money with no risk.

It's a free roll...what's the EV on freeplay?

Is AP a license to print money?

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

I remember you stating that in the past.

It's unclear whether you ever sold plays or not, but on numerous occasions you did participate in the scheme of buying and selling plays.

Somebody turned you onto a play, you used your own money on the play, and you paid them even if the play lost...right?

This is the same scenario in my question below...

Let's call the buyer Axel, and call the seller a "guru" named "Red".

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad.

Does that make Axel the chump?

Or is it just square biz, where you value the advice that the guru provides, and the guru considers you a client and not a chump?

I paid people upfront for information on "slam dunk" plays that I didn't know about. They are plays that DON'T LAST LONG. Perhaps a Jackpot Promotion out of state. I have given people a free roll on plays because I need the help and I'll make more money since it's not scalable and it won't last long. Normally it's people who can't afford the play themselves, or they can afford it but they don't want to take the risk or they would rather just get an hourly or freeroll.

No, Im not selling plays. I may make a deal with someome where Im willing to put up all the money and show someome how to do it for half the wins, but I'll take all the losses. You can't do somthing like that with sports handicapping and still profit. I might just take on a partner and split everything down the middle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

I really have no idea if he had or has clients. He always said he didn't.

He never said that he doesn't have clients, he mentioned them frequently.

For example...the Boeing VP that got the perfect SAT score, or the guy who busted his balls in the diner for losing 6 straight.

He said he wasn't recruiting clients, during a period when he wasn't taking new clients.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

If the chumps win the guru gets his cut, if the chumps lose, too bad so sad.

Does that make Axel the chump?

Or is it just square biz, where you value the advice that the guru provides, and the guru considers you a client and not a chump?

Yes that would make the buyer a chump since the buyer would most likely have a negative expectation when dealing with thin edges. Remember, according to Red there is no such thing as Expected Value when it comes to handicapping. I can understand why one might claim that in his buissness, because if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

First I don't condone the hijacking of EVERY thread by Madwg to continue with his obsessive trolling. He has adequate threads, most started by him to troll me. There is no need to hijack this thread started by mickey, attempting to get to the bottom of Redietz's history and claims.

I started this thread to highlight professional sportsbetters in the media, like Captain Jack Andrews, Rufus Peabody, Chinamaniac, etc. It had nothing to do with redietz. Its human interest. I've always been curious of how other professional gamblers operate. That includes sports bettors. I thought it would be entertaining and educational.

Fair enough. But in the process you have exposed some inconsistencies about Red.

So based on your research, are you personally doing any sports betting these days mickey?

I play poker on Bovada but can also bet sports. I think I have some money on Betonline too. I bet Druff's picks yesterday but only $22 per game. First sports bets I've made in years. It made the games interesting. I pushed one game and won the other one. I'm not looking to handicap games myself. There's to much skill involved that I don't have. Druff's sides and totals stats look strong enough that I won't get beat up to bad if I follow his pics.

But my challenge in my signature to Redietz still stands. Give me a 2 point discount on the favorites or 2 extra points on the dogs and we'll bet every game. Redietz has ignored that challenge because he knows he would be at a disadvantage.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Perhaps a Jackpot Promotion out of state. I have given people a free roll on plays because I need the help and I'll make more money since it's not scalable and it won't last long.

That's what I asked about earlier...

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Why do you use a team for your plays?

Isn't it because you are individually limited as to how much action you can get down?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Because he makes more money with no risk.

It's a free roll...what's the EV on freeplay?

Involving more people and players is NOT no risk. It adds risk. Now some kinds of plays you need a certain number of people, like Axelwolf has described in plays where you need to lock down a bank of machines. But most plays that can be done solo, when you expand to more people, you increase a variety of risks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

In some case yes.

Machine play, the free play is often PART of the play. The Fp can be what makes the play +EV.

But take what I do at card counting. The +EV comes from the card counting. So I and most card counters play unrated, refusing any "extra" type free play, which for table games comes in the forum of free bets or match plays. So for me and most table game AP's the answer is yes.

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

I play poker on Bovada but can also bet sports. I think I have some money on Betonline too. I bet Druff's picks yesterday but only $22 per game. So I lost a grand total of $2. First sports bets I've made in years. It made the games interesting. I pushed one game and won the other one. I'm not looking to handicap games myself. There's to much skill involved that I don't have. Druff's sides and totals stats look strong enough that I won't get beat up to bad if I follow his pics.

That is all good. Advantage play is advantage play at any level bet. :cool:

I also bet Druffs 3 picks (2 NFL, 1 NBA), but won some money. The 2 NFL were win and push. His NBA pick was Portland ML over Lakers. Druff even admitted it was a longshot, so I bet the points +10.5 instead, with a token small extra wager on ML. Made some money when Lakers won by 9. I also had my Carolina Panthers pick (+13.5) that I posted before the game against my Eagles that I am pretty proud of. It was just too many points. Haven't felt that strong about an NFL game for a long time. I liked that game so much I bet some extra money at B&M casinos because I wanted to get more than I could at my online books.

How do you do playing Poker on Bovada Mickey? Are you a winning player? I have never played a single hand of poker (excluding VP) online or in person.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

for me and most table game AP's the answer is yes.

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Involving more people and players is NOT no risk. It adds risk.

You must mean the risk of getting mugged, or something along those lines that you can't quantify mathematically with respect to the wager.

But as far as the bets themselves, there's no mathematical risk to the bettor using freeplay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

Sure you can, given enough trials you can see their overall results and quantify their opinion mathematically. That is exactly what quantify means.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

I JUST explained it! Blackjack card counting, holecarding (which I don't do much anymore) or other type table game I play unrated because the EV is from something besides the FP. VP, (which I also don't do much of anymore) the EV was from the FP, so yes, I collected and played FP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

You must mean the risk of getting mugged, or something along those lines that you can't quantify mathematically with respect to the wager.

But as far as the bets themselves, there's no mathematical risk to the bettor using freeplay.

No what I mean is the RISK of the play being exposed or "blown up" or otherwise shortened.

coach belly, you don't seem very knowledgeable about advantage play. Just from having been on forums as long as you have trolling, I would think you would know more than you do or are pretending not to know. :confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

quantify their opinion mathematically

Isn't expected value based on the mathematical odds of the wager, where the odds are calculated based on randomness, such that the results will follow a random distribution?

Yes you don't use freeplay...and yes you do.

Yeah, OK, you explained it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Do APs make enough that they don't use freeplay?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

for me and most table game AP's the answer is yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Give me a break...do you use freeplay or not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

yes, I collected and played FP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

[/QUOTE] Do you know that for sure? There are plenty of gullible people in this world who can be bamboozled into thinking the profits are coming.

Do some research on MLMs, people touting their bunk betting system etc.

Here is a fun watch. I love John Oliver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6MwGeOm8iI

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

No what I mean is the RISK of the play being exposed or "blown up" or otherwise shortened.

How does that apply to the money at risk for a wager?

If you bet your own money, then your money is at risk.

If you bet somebody else's money, then your money is not at risk.

It's math. Why are you struggling with this concept?

You can't quantify Integrity Sports' risk of exposure, or back off or whatever you're talking about, based on the number of investors involved.

A guy just bet $3 million the Eagles moneyline, how would the monetary risk change based on how many investors were involved in raising the stake money?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Do you know that for sure?

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

quantify their opinion mathematically

Isn't expected value based on the mathematical odds of the wager, where the odds are calculated based on randomness, such that the results will follow a random distribution?

That's CALULATED ODDS, you used the word QUANTIFIED.

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results. If someone has been picking 57% on 50/50 chances over thousands of trials, I would say you can be fairly confident they have an Advantage and you can calculate/quantify it within reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Do you know that for sure?

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

It could look like this.

Lose 100k the first year with no profit. Win the 2nd year 50k profit(pay commission). Lose the 3rd year 100k... They Go for the 4th year. They continued to pay for his advice even though it was not profitable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results.

Believe what you want, but EV applies to the wager, not to who makes the wager.

The calculation of EV is based on random results, are the results of athletic contests random over any number of trials?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I believe you can figure out someone's EV based on enough long-term results.

Believe what you want, but EV applies to the wager, not to who makes the wager.

The calculation of EV is based on random results, are the results of athletic contests random over any number of trials?

Yes the EV is based on the wagers. Knowing who or what has the ability to make +EV wagers can be based on the number of trials and results.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enctYgbln0E&t=55s

Take note to :53

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Do you know that for sure?

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

That's the business model, advisor's commission based on percentage of profit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

They continued to pay for his advice even though it was not profitable.

That's not possible, the advisor is paid from the profits. If they paid, then they were profitable.

Whether the clients continue to pay for his advice has no bearing on how the commission is calculated.

They all start with no previous results...no advice, nothing lost, no profits, no commissions paid.

The money lost wagering is not paid to the advisor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

I don't think we should keep holding that against redietz as it was only $500.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Knowing who or what has the ability to make +EV wagers can be based on the number of trials and results.

That only applies to wagers where a random distribution of results is expected.

Are you talking about MDawg?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

Gossip.

Why do you ask, what have you heard, who did you hear it from?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enctYgbln0E&t=55s

Take note to :53

This isn't always the case. There were some very valid pick services recently (5ish years) but they were more based on props which had weak lines.

It is also very hard to get in enough action. Having your clients bet for you alleviates that. It takes a pretty big bankroll to make much sports betting. The edges aren't particularly big but more importantly the frequency of positive wagers isn't very high.

Anyway not that I particularly disagree with you but throwing in my 2 cents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Knowing who or what has the ability to make +EV wagers can be based on the number of trials and results.

That only applies to wagers where a random distribution of results is expected.

Are you talking about MDawg?

According to redietz the games arent random. He's said it over and over again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

According to redietz the games arent random. He's said it over and over again.

I agree...the results of athletic events are not random.

Otherwise the moneyline odds would be the same for every event,
like the craps table or VP machine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Coach B, aren't you the guy that dug into and posted Redietz non or late tax payment?

Gossip.

Why do you ask, what have you heard, who did you hear it from?

Except that wasn't gossip. Gossip is spreadinga rumor. What you did was specifically look up information and when you found something posted it. Very coach belly of you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by accountinquestion

I don't think we should keep holding that against redietz as it was only $500.

I don't really hold the tax thing against redietz. Mainly because I don't know the circumstances. He tried to explain the circumstances over at GF, as to why he pays 6 months late every year and incurs late fees and penalties and his reason just didn't make any sense to me.

But I really don't care. It is just something to bust on him about. And I do feel justified on busting on him, because he is actually the one that came up with that stupid KJ male prostitute shit, that seedvalue and Mdawg have run with. Red, did it in a way trying to be funny like "I don't know if he is a card counter, works at dunkin donuts or is a male prostitute". The others just ran with that and got really nasty with the lies and repeated it a million times. So, yeah, I feel justified in an occasional Tax jab at Red.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves.

You're assuming that what was written on that site applied to every client.

It's likely that info only applied to prospective clients.

I recall him writing about giving clients plays on the phone, and they would bet on their own, with a local book or whatever.

Sometimes the client wouldn't pull the trigger.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Except that wasn't gossip. Gossip is spreading a rumor.

You are incorrect again cum breath, gossip doesn't have to be spreading a rumor.

If you were really Villanova material, you would know that.

Look it up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

Just for the record: Not hard to look up and quote accurately...if you want to do so.

A quaint little site, but all things considered, I'm proud of it considering when it was posted. No exaggerations, precision in reporting of results, completely accurate and above board.

One thing I worry about is "APs," whose job requires absolute precision, when they are incredibly sloppy at reporting other things. I mean, really, how hard is this to look up? So one gets concerned about their reporting of their own narratives. Obviously this is a very old site (ballpark 1998), so what I was doing in, say, 2015, would not be what I was doing in 1998.

https://web.archive.org/web/20101014...itysports.com/

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

Just for the record

To be clear, I haven't received any talking points from you...as if!

That's MDawg's cross to bear.

PS...I never received the Venmo.

To digress...on to the title of this thread, "professional sportsbetting:"

I've not much of a "nit" to pick, but hey, nit picking is a lawyerly thing.

I thought becoming a "professional" at something required specialized training and a degree or certificate of competence.

Lawyers, doctors, CPA's, plumbers, electricians...all have it.

BUT...not sportsbettors, nor any AP's: they have ZERO professional training in that field, because so far as I am aware there are no colleges or schools with that on the curriculum.

Were I the Word Police I'd substitute the term "rabid" for "professional."

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Sure you can, given enough trials you can see their overall results and quantify their opinion mathematically. That is exactly what quantify means.

When you quantify something, you're putting it in numbers.

You can record and count opinions and the results, but you cannot quantify an opinion before a result is registered, unless that quantity is 1.

What about professional boxers or other athlete?

To me the definition is that is what the person does to earn a living. Professional sports bettor works.

Boxers and athletes all have coaches to teach them; most pro athletes get their training in school.

Besides, don't you think the term "professional boxer" or "professional athlete" is a bit of a misnomer?

i do, because to my mind if a person really is a "professional" they can work in that field until they hit retirement age; boxers and athletes have a short shelf life: "Hello, Mike Tyson."

I'm not denigrating people who choose to call themselves professional sportsbettors or professional gamblers, I am simply quibbling: it's what I do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

When I do a google search,
I get nothing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Sure you can, given enough trials you can see their overall results and quantify their opinion mathematically. That is exactly what quantify means.

When you quantify something, you're putting it in numbers.

You can record and count opinions and the results, but you cannot quantify an opinion before a result is registered, unless that quantity is 1.

It's hard to quantify one.... but not many. What's your point? Are you saying no one can calculate or quantify if Red even has an advantage? If so, I may agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

When I do a google search,
I get nothing.

You must be quite the researcher. Has CSI given you a call?

I'm sorry. This is the kind of precision you get with VCT's crack advantage players.

I love when maroons say, "I did a google search." That's like saying, "I took a walk," and they expect people to think they're a top-notch marathoner.

Of course, the follow-up questions might be something like this:

1) How many pages of google did you search? Fifty? Two hundred? Or three? LOL.
2) How many hours did you search? Or should we count this in minutes? Seconds?
3) How many topics did you search?
4) How many names associated with the topic did you search, say Marc Lawrence or Playbook or Bally's College Contests and on and on and on.

I'm going to take a wild stab here. I don't think VCT is exactly brimming with people who did any graduate research. Or serious job research. Or really, any sustained, serious research.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

if you come up with the expected EV, then someome can show the math of why the client has no value if and when he gives freerolls to the guru.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

EXPECT to make 10-12 % on your INVESTMENT. You could lose it all.

A 100k investor should expect to make 10k to 20k according to him. What is Red's cut of that? 20%? That is a lot of work and BS for a few thousand per 100k investment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

That is a lot of work and BS for a few thousand per 100k investment.

Why does Schwab bother advertising? They already manage 10 trillion.

You must be a small-picture type. You keep saying it's a lot of work.

The work is in the analysis, it doesn't increase with the number of investors, but the income does.

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

When I do a google search,
I get nothing.

You must be quite the researcher. Has CSI given you a call?

I'm sorry. This is the kind of precision you get with VCT's crack advantage players.

I love when maroons say, "I did a google search." That's like saying, "I took a walk," and they expect people to think they're a top-notch marathoner.

Of course, the follow-up questions might be something like this:

1) How many pages of google did you search? Fifty? Two hundred? Or three? LOL.
2) How many hours did you search? Or should we count this in minutes? Seconds?
3) How many topics did you search?
4) How many names associated with the topic did you search, say Marc Lawrence or Playbook or Bally's College Contests and on and on and on.

I'm going to take a wild stab here. I don't think VCT is exactly brimming with people who did any graduate research. Or serious job research. Or really, any sustained, serious research.

Let me know when you want me to call Anthony Curtis(see my previous post regarding this)

Let me know when you want me to prove what I do know or dont know about sports betting (See my previous post).

All this back and forth means nothing. Show me the money, put your money where your mouth is. Show me you have the ability to make money gambling. I know I do, I know I can, let's put our skills to work and see who knows what, or who can make money via gambling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

That is a lot of work and BS for a few thousand per 100k investment.

Why does Schwab bother advertising? They already manage 10 trillion.

You must be a small-picture type. You keep saying it's a lot of work.

The work is in the analysis, it doesn't increase with the number of investors, but the income does.

Let me know how that works with sports according to what Red does, then we can discuss it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

Originally Posted by coach belly

They pay him for his opinion. They value his opinion.

They continue to pay for his advice only if it's profitable.

There is no way to mathematically quantify an opinion.

The conclusion of your "if/then" scenario below is null...the hypothesis does not exist.

In his Integrity Sports ad redietz told prospective investors what they could expect to make on the season. I think it was around 15 or 20%, something like that.

And they had to deliver the money to him, not make the bets themselves. Redietz would never go for letting clients make their own bets unless they paid up front for each pick. What's to guarantee he gets paid if he relies on them paying up after a win? And they could give his picks away.

EXPECT to make 10-12 % on your INVESTMENT. You could lose it all.

A 100k investor should expect to make 10k to 20k according to him. What is Red's cut of that? 20%? That is a lot of work and BS for a few thousand per 100k investment.

If you say so.

That is, of course, in four months. Oh wait, Axelwolf didn't read that thing about four months. LOL. He tends to not read carefully. Makes me wonder about his math.

I wonder why he didn't figure that out. Is it the reading comprehension? Is it the nose-in-the-air of the dude who has such a palatial lifestyle after a lifetime of "APing?" Inquiring minds want to know.