Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

Just looked at the numbers for the 3 years that I have worked this 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play.

2025 - 13-15 (4 no plays for me that were either pickem's or +/- 1 pt)
2024 - 15-13 (4 no plays for me)
2023 - 20-12

That is a total of 48-40 for the 3 years. That works out to about a 4% advantage. 4% is lower than the 6% advantage over the last 16 years, but I will take it. That is how variance works.

So tell me again, how this play isn't +EV Bob Dietz. Perhaps you can explain that in the interview that you have pushed off for 2 years and is NEVER going to happen.

And yes, I will definitely be throwing my money on the underdogs + points in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Give me that 4, 5, 6 % EV and advantage. That is what advantage players do. Of course Bob Dietz wouldn't know about this.

BTW, for the last 3 years some of my wagers on this 1st 2 weeks play has been at online sports books (in addition to overflow wagers at books here in Vegas) , contributing towards the rollover requirements for my bonus play. So I have made money off that end also.

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

[Half Smoke]

But good enough to say, "I won Week One. I won Week Two. I won Week Three. And I won Week Four."
And on we go.

Please send all gratuities to 1412 Forest Dale Lane, Johnson City, TN. Thanks in advance.

anyone wanna believe that he won't win Week 5 too (which is actually Week Four) and tell everybody that he won Week 5 after Week 5 is over without ever actually posting any picks - ?

I doubt it -

and he's also extremely likely to grab a whole lotta of new clients eager to plunge so that he can give them a fistful of winners every single Week all the way until Feb. 2026____________

and a great big thank you to Dan Druff for making it sooooo easy for so many to make so much easy money

.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, you are trying to Analize the game individually based on matchups and such.....just like 100 million other weekend warrior sports bettors. 99.999% will lose money long-term because of the vig. I doubt you are that 0.0001 that can will long-term.

Winning sports bettors today are using computer generated analytics based on years of results that really have little to do with the actual teams playing. And as Deitz will tell you, this isn't new. This has been going on for decades. To win long-term, you have got to get out of that mindset where you are looking at the teams playing and looking at individual matchups. That is like a blackjack player playing a game with a house edge of .5% and thinking he can win long-term just playing basic strategy. (no card counting or anything that gives him an advantage).

Now, here is another little "angle" that half smoke has mentioned based on decades of data provided by Wizard. If you play away dogs plus points, you will win a very small percentage something like 1.5% That is based on decades of data.

If you are looking for a common sense reason why this angle (along with the first two weeks dogs angle) works, it is because the public tends to over bet both favorites and home teams, making away dogs value. (slight +EV over decades).

But what you are doing Rob, is just degenerate sports bettor gambling. Have fun if that is what you want to do. But you are NOt playing at an advantage (+EV) no matter how much you think you are.

Redietz might be able to understand the lessons you're giving but 0 chance with Singer. Just let it go ..

It just further highlights the difference between real advantage players, players that find an advantage and play it, resulting in LONG-TERM winning, and these degenerate, losing gamblers (gamblers in every sense of the word). The person you mentioned thinks and continues to believe that progressive wagering can overcome -EV. THAT is degenerate gambling 101.

There has always been a divide between real APs and these types of "gamblers" on this forum, dating back to the forum founder, who had many voodoo beliefs.

No wonder the casinos treat some of these guys well with comps and offers. They have proven to be long-time, long-term losing players. Just the kind of players casinos drool over.

Kew you'll never get it because you're nothing but a low-budget degenerate gambler on the outside looking in---like a great majority of those misguided souls who live in LV and moved there expecting casinos to be their personal ATM's.

You're own "long-term" argument works against you big time, and if you had any gambling intelligence at all, you'd see it. Winners over time do receive continuing lucrative offers and comps, and it makes complete casino sense to do so. If someone came into YOUR house and kept beating you on slightly -EV games, wouldn't the smart move be to keep inviting them back in for a chance to get your money back?

Ask Bob Dancer. His claims of beating the casinos for decades and them showering him with constant gifts and comps is legendary. And it isn't much different with me. In fact, irregardless of the fact that I've mugged Atlantis for tens of thousands in profits in about 10 weeks worth of play earlier this summer--basically as I've been doing for years--their owner John Farahi called me this week thanking me for my long-term loyalty, and invited me to become a Black Diamond member. If Peppermill wasn't in such current disarray I'd expect something similar from them.

Wake up and smell the urine kew. There's a reason you're locked onto that stench, when those of us who are successful in gambling have nothing but roses lining our paths.

[AxelWolf]

Just looked at the numbers for the 3 years that I have worked this 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play.

2025 - 13-15 (4 no plays for me that were either pickem's or +/- 1 pt)
2024 - 15-13 (4 no plays for me)
2023 - 20-12

That is a total of 48-40 for the 3 years. That works out to about a 4% advantage. 4% is lower than the 6% advantage over the last 16 years, but I will take it. That is how variance works.

So tell me again, how this play isn't +EV Bob Dietz. Perhaps you can explain that in the interview that you have pushed off for 2 years and is NEVER going to happen.

And yes, I will definitely be throwing my money on the underdogs + points in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Give me that 4, 5, 6 % EV and advantage. That is what advantage players do. Of course Bob Dietz wouldn't know about this.

BTW, for the last 3 years some of my wagers on this 1st 2 weeks play has been at online sports books (in addition to overflow wagers at books here in Vegas) , contributing towards the rollover requirements for my bonus play. So I have made money off that end also.

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

Hey now,.why don't YOU book the action next season? I'll do at least 2,500 per game that fits the criteria, I automatically default to the best line at any major casino up to 8 hour's before game time. We can agree to both get dan 40k in escrow (more than enough). Say yes,.and we can hammer out the details with Dan and even get a 2nd party for backup regarding escrow funds.

[Keystone]

Just looked at the numbers for the 3 years that I have worked this 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play.

2025 - 13-15 (4 no plays for me that were either pickem's or +/- 1 pt)
2024 - 15-13 (4 no plays for me)
2023 - 20-12

That is a total of 48-40 for the 3 years. That works out to about a 4% advantage. 4% is lower than the 6% advantage over the last 16 years, but I will take it. That is how variance works.

So tell me again, how this play isn't +EV Bob Dietz. Perhaps you can explain that in the interview that you have pushed off for 2 years and is NEVER going to happen.

And yes, I will definitely be throwing my money on the underdogs + points in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Give me that 4, 5, 6 % EV and advantage. That is what advantage players do. Of course Bob Dietz wouldn't know about this.

BTW, for the last 3 years some of my wagers on this 1st 2 weeks play has been at online sports books (in addition to overflow wagers at books here in Vegas) , contributing towards the rollover requirements for my bonus play. So I have made money off that end also.

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

Hey now,.why don't YOU book the action next season? I'll do at least 2,500 per game that fits the criteria, I automatically default to the best line at any major casino up to 8 hour's before game time. We can agree to both get dan 40k in escrow (more than enough). Say yes,.and we can hammer out the details with Dan and even get a 2nd party for backup regarding escrow funds.

Yeah that’s really gonna happen 👍

[kewlJ]

Bob Dietz the poster that posts as redeitz, and is/was a sports bettintg "tout" for 40 years while telling everyone he was a successful winning sports better is really having a conipishit, aka meltdown.

I am going to correct his bullshit lies and mis-representations one more time and when he repeats them again like the troll that he is, I will not respond.

First, he used the word scam and has previously alluded to I told people to play this play. 100% false. I simply have made people aware of this play or opportunity each year during the first 2 weeks of NFL season. As has half smoke and others.

Second I went 13-15. I don't care what covers or any other site counts as underdogs. I don't count "pickem" games or even +1/-1 point lines, as it completely defeats the purpose of the underdog + points. The advantage is the points. and pickem or +/-1 that advantage disappears. AND I told people what games I was betting and not betting before hand. Something Bob Dietz NEVER does. All we get from him is past posting. "I won" I won".

Next, Dietz was hoping dogs went 10-22 or something. When that didn't happen, he new tactic is to say programmers have been doing this kind of thing for 40 years. Well I never claimed I came up with anything involving this play. As a matter of fact I credit (multiple times) Half Smoke for bringing it to me. And he used Wizards data.

Just the same as I didn't invent card counting or the sports betting bonus whoring, or the Las Vegas mailer bonus game that I played for a number of years. Or Grosjeans big six wheel strategy that I played successfully one year. These are ALL advantage plays that others figured out, but I played and won with. THAT is what advantage play is. Finding and playing things at an advantage.

Dietz went on to say sportsbooks would have adjusted lines since everyone knows about this play. "Everyone doesn't know about this play. There are still plenty of the old voodoo bettors (majority of bettors) that throw down their money on the favorites. So no need to adjust anything. As a matter of fact the past 16 years where Dogs + points kicked ass, so did the sports books because of these favorite bettors.

And finally the stupid person to person challenges that forums are known for. Dietz is proposing a one-on-one betting of this system with someone holding money. Why would I do that? I can just bet what I want to bet with any number of sports books. Moses wanted to do that to. wanted to play me one-on-one in blackjack. Why would I do that. I play blackjack against casinos. THAT is my advantage.

In conclusion, this Bob Dietz having been exposed as a "tout" rather than the successful sports bettor he portrayed is out to discredit me and anyone else that actually wins doing anything with sports betting. Same as there is a group of people that try to discredit anyone winning via advantage play. To all of these people, probably life long losing degenerate type gamblers I say. GET OVER IT! There are players that find and play with an advantage. They are called advantage players. Maybe you should try it instead of always donating to the casinos.

[TomasHClines]

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

Hey now,.why don't YOU book the action next season? I'll do at least 2,500 per game that fits the criteria, I automatically default to the best line at any major casino up to 8 hour's before game time. We can agree to both get dan 40k in escrow (more than enough). Say yes,.and we can hammer out the details with Dan and even get a 2nd party for backup regarding escrow funds.

Yeah that’s really gonna happen 👍

[kewlJ]

And let me tell you something else, Bob Dietz, sports betting "tout". Anyone that followed along with the baseball thread discussion with "theydon'tpayontuesdays" and myself, knows that I bet overs in baseball for 6-7 weeks from late June to early August and did quite well. Not quite as well as last year when I kicked ass, but did very well this year. This angle is about weather and temperatures. Particularly games played (not in domes) in 90 degree plus temperatures. The ball jumps in hot temperatures. More homeruns, more runs.

Now not EVERY game is a play. If the temperature is 90 degrees but wind blowing in 20 MPH, well there isn't going to be more homeruns and runs. If two or even one of the top ground ball pitchers is on the mound, there isn't going to be more homeruns despite 90 degrees. You don't hit homeruns on the ground. So it wasn't every game every day, but most days most games were a play during that period. I tried to state beforehand which games I was laying off.

And this angle has worked for 2 years now resulting in a strong win for me. Not every play or angle works and wins. BUT every play or angle is at an advantage. THAT is what advantage play is about.

So while I am NOT a professional sports bettor, I am an advantage player that is and does some things with sports betting. Get over it Mr Tout.

[kewlJ]

Just looked at the numbers for the 3 years that I have worked this 1st 2 weeks NFL underdog play.

2025 - 13-15 (4 no plays for me that were either pickem's or +/- 1 pt)
2024 - 15-13 (4 no plays for me)
2023 - 20-12

That is a total of 48-40 for the 3 years. That works out to about a 4% advantage. 4% is lower than the 6% advantage over the last 16 years, but I will take it. That is how variance works.

So tell me again, how this play isn't +EV Bob Dietz. Perhaps you can explain that in the interview that you have pushed off for 2 years and is NEVER going to happen.

And yes, I will definitely be throwing my money on the underdogs + points in the first 2 weeks of 2026. Give me that 4, 5, 6 % EV and advantage. That is what advantage players do. Of course Bob Dietz wouldn't know about this.

BTW, for the last 3 years some of my wagers on this 1st 2 weeks play has been at online sports books (in addition to overflow wagers at books here in Vegas) , contributing towards the rollover requirements for my bonus play. So I have made money off that end also.

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

Hey now,.why don't YOU book the action next season? I'll do at least 2,500 per game that fits the criteria, I automatically default to the best line at any major casino up to 8 hour's before game time. We can agree to both get dan 40k in escrow (more than enough). Say yes,.and we can hammer out the details with Dan and even get a 2nd party for backup regarding escrow funds.

What does it tell you that Axelwolf is willing to take Dietz's action against this play? It tells you Axelwolf, a long time successful advantage player understands that this play is +EV. He played the play last year. I haven't heard him say whether he played it this year.

It still comes back to one thing. Advantage players find and play things at an advantage. And that includes some things involving sports. And Redietz, the phone sports betting expert (tout in reality) doesn't like it.

[accountinquestion]

Isn't there a general consensus that tends to drive the money? A shared set of views outside those of the fans of either team (or pro bettors)? And would this sentiment which translates into wagered money have value in being labeled for discussions? Ie "the public"

Also if a trend wins for many years then redietz claims it will be corrected in the lines but what if the same mistakes are made by "the public" every year and the weakness in the lines helps the books in general? It does not follow that the trend would be corrected. It simply does not make sense to the books. Given how sharps are always being limtied/cut-off, it helps ensure that the vast majority of action is with the public. If the trends being discussed consistently help the books and hurt "the public" then why would they change it???

Let's be clear - since there seems to be more confusion. It isn't the games that have trends it is that the lines have trends. At least that seems to make more sense to me.

Redietz you forgot to respond to my post and your thoughts. I editted my post slightly so it makes more sense.

[kewlJ]

He didn't respond because what he said that books would adjust the lines doesn't make sense. If the general public (ie ploppies or degen sports bettors) are over betting favorites and home teams, which they absolutely do, and there is a 16 year or 30 year trend that dogs +points cover, then why would the books adjust lines. The sports books are winning with this trend.

One other thing that I have touched on but want to again. This "first 2 weeks" play is only a subsection of a much larger play. Half smoke has also discussed this. Based on Wizards numbers of I believe 30 year, betting ALL away dogs for the entire season results in a slight advantage of 1 to 1.5%. And that is no small sample size. 30 years, 16 weeks, 16 games a week (probably 12 of them away teams are dogs getting points).

I will be playing this for the remainder of the NFL season. It is not something you will get rich off of, but add that to the bonus whoring, and a 1.5% profit on top of the bonus and it is a nice supplemental sports betting play.

And Red just hates that....an advantage player making money off a +EV sports play. Red hating it makes it even better.

[Keystone]

See, this is the core problem with kewlJ from an integrity standpoint. And from a consistency standpoint.

It turns out that he has absolutely no moral high ground from which to criticize MDawg for voodoo betting. How kewlJ describes sports betting, what he applies, and what he claims mathematically, are all as or more nonsensical than the worst stuff MDawg has ever written. Anybody with an ounce of math training, be it Shackleford or Dancer or Munchkin or Curtis, will flail kewlJ for his sudden new addiction to simple trendsvestitism. What kewlJ is trying to apply has been around for, oh, 40 years, and people have figured out what works, why some thing do not work, and why nothing lasts forever. And why it has almost nothing to do with probability theory or "EV."

It's pretty simple, at the heart of it. These are not coin flips. LOL.

You are dealing with an open system, not a closed system such as blackjack play. In other words, it is literally impossible to forecast even a rough "EV" when past results DO affect future results.

I'll explain it briefly, then explain why kewlJ is running a kind of intellectual scam much worse than anything MDawg has done. KewlJ should be up in arms about himself, debunking the obvious nonsense that he is putting out in public. He is misleading the public in the service of his own alleged expertise. In other words, he is misleading people for his own aggrandizement.

If you have a vulnerability in the ATS, such as first-two-weeks NFL underdogs for 10 years, then literally everyone becomes aware of it. There is literally nothing kewlJ can come up with that a bevy of programmers haven't already catalogued, including Playbook and including the bookmakers. So when you get a strong trend becoming obvious, such as the first-two-weeks-dogs, the power ratings remain the same but the lines get adjusted. How hard is that to grasp?

For a person with integrity, who isn't out to rip off the public, it is not hard to grasp. What were +7s previous seasons get shaved down to +6's and maybe even +5s by oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are not required to give you unadjusted lines. It's their fucking to job to NOT do that. Blithely betting with this historical trend, you have not only lost any presumed "edge," you are likely operating at a disadvantage. You are, according to power ratings, undoubtedly operating at a disadvantage.

And with the first-two-weeks-NFL-dogs trend, you are going to see this disadvantage, probably for at least a couple of years.

So what kewlJ is telling people to do results in people getting the worst of the numbers precisely BECAUSE underdogs have done well recently.

Now what makes this all silly is that handicappers have been dealing with basics like this for, literally, decades. The idea that the lines are crystalline from year-to-year and adhere to power ratings precisely is silly and provably wrong and has been provably wrong since Kewlj was in diapers.

So why does kewlJ try to foist this nonsense upon forum readers? I don't know, but his theories are actually worse than anything MDawg has written because this particular angle is built to lose.

MDawg -- LOL -- I have an idea. If you want to get on kewlJ's nerves, just take him up on his underdog angle and bet him next season. Bet against him every game for two weeks, for whatever he wants. Make it an adventure. I'm sure Todd would hold the money. Might even make a fine documentary, with the inimitable kewlJ off camera, like an ethereal voice.

And according to Covers.com bookkeeping, NFL underdogs went 14-18 ATS, not 13-15. So the Kewlj is tweaking reality a bit in his reporting. Never a good thing. No wonder he's always +EV.

https://www.covers.com/sport/footbal...s/seasontodate

Hey now,.why don't YOU book the action next season? I'll do at least 2,500 per game that fits the criteria, I automatically default to the best line at any major casino up to 8 hour's before game time. We can agree to both get dan 40k in escrow (more than enough). Say yes,.and we can hammer out the details with Dan and even get a 2nd party for backup regarding escrow funds.

What does it tell you that Axelwolf is willing to take Dietz's action against this play? It tells you Axelwolf, a long time successful advantage player understands that this play is +EV. He played the play last year. I haven't heard him say whether he played it this year.

It still comes back to one thing. Advantage players find and play things at an advantage. And that includes some things involving sports. And Redietz, the phone sports betting expert (tout in reality) doesn't like it.

The chances of either of them putting up any real money are about the same as Mdawg not growing Rapunzel like hair out of his nose, ears, and back

[Half Smoke]

He didn't respond because what he said that books would adjust the lines doesn't make sense. If the general public (ie ploppies or degen sports bettors) are over betting favorites and home teams, which they absolutely do, and there is a 16 year or 30 year trend that dogs +points cover, then why would the books adjust lines. The sports books are winning with this trend.

One other thing that I have touched on but want to again. This "first 2 weeks" play is only a subsection of a much larger play. Half smoke has also discussed this. Based on Wizards numbers of I believe 30 year, betting ALL away dogs for the entire season results in a slight advantage of 1 to 1.5%. And that is no small sample size. 30 years, 16 weeks, 16 games a week (probably 12 of them away teams are dogs getting points).

I will be playing this for the remainder of the NFL season. It is not something you will get rich off of, but add that to the bonus whoring, and a 1.5% profit on top of the bonus and it is a nice supplemental sports betting play.

And Red just hates that....an advantage player making money off a +EV sports play. Red hating it makes it even better.

KJ:

here is Mike's tracking of over 2,000 games showing all away underdogs with a positive r.o.i. of 2.57%

a cautionary note - this material is dated - I'm not sure it's still that strong - but I would speculate that it will at least break even ats and be good for bonuses and such


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


.

[kewlJ]

KJ:

here is Mike's tracking of over 2,000 games showing all away underdogs with an r.o.i. of 2.57%

a cautionary note - this material is dated - I'm not sure it's still that strong - but I would speculate that it will at least break even ats and be good for bonuses and such


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


.

Thank you half smoke.

Break even is fine with me, since as you know my real advantage comes from the bonus money. I mean I would like to do a little better than break even, but break even and I make good money.

If away dogs +points shows a profit, that is advantage on top of advantage. What do you think of THAT Dietz?

[kewlJ]

Half smoke, as we have discussed privately, I don't know why we (me more than you) bother with this twit Deitz. he is simply a "hater", hating on anyone doing anything at an advantage concerning sports betting, which as a life-long "tout" he considers this private arena.

But after 2 weeks of the NFL season and 3 weeks of college football season, this guy has 4 winning weeks. How can you not love that keep and of retardedness.

[mickeycrimm]

Given all of what you said, and I agree with all of it

And yet, you said there is no such thing as EXPECTED VALUE IN SPORTS BETTING.

I was referring to the checklist, not the EV nonsense. The postscript below the checklist is gobbledygook. If people want to label their opinion with the phrase EV, well, God bless their arrogance.

There is no such thing as EV in sports betting, outside of bonus whoring and rebates.

Axelwolf, did I mention that I won Week One, I won Week Two, I won Week Three, and I won (seven bucks on 12K in wagers) Week Four? No, no, no need to congratulate me. It's what I do.

P.S. I hope you didn't help kewlJ with his EV calculations regarding NFL underdogs Weeks One and Two. I also hope kewlJ doesn't lose faith. He can plug in the same formula next season and explain he's accumulating value as he donates money to books based on his personal bizarro take on probability theory.

Redietz, what's your strategy on buying points?

[MDawg]

Perhaps if you worked harder to create a coherent narrative that didn't contradict itself or defy common sense...